工业硅：弱势格局，多晶硅：短期情绪继续降温

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industrial silicon market is in a weak pattern, and the short - term sentiment of polysilicon continues to cool down. The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a bearish view [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 contract's closing price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from T - 1. Its trading volume was 225,177 lots, a significant decrease of 185,194 lots compared to T - 1. The open interest was 194,340 lots, down 18,592 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the PS2509 contract's closing price was 49,200 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 383,215 lots (down 182,623 lots from T - 1) and an open interest of 110,762 lots (down 16,227 lots from T - 1) [2]. - Basis and Spread: The industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 0 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying near - month and selling continuous - first was 46.7 yuan/ton. The polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 195.0 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot Premium and Discount: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against different grades) and polysilicon's spot discount (against N - type re - investment material) showed various changes compared to previous periods [2]. - Prices: In industrial silicon, the price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. In polysilicon, the price of N - type re - investment material was 47,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan from T - 1. Other related products in the photovoltaic industry also had price changes [2]. - Profits: Silicon factory profits for different regions (Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553) were negative, and polysilicon enterprise profits were - 17.2 yuan/kg, up 0.7 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - Inventory: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 540,000 tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 229,000 tons. Both showed changes compared to previous periods [2]. - Raw Material Costs: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in the industrial silicon production process had different changes [2]. Macro and Industry News - On July 31, JinkoSolar released its July 2025 investor relations activity record. By the end of this year, the production capacity of products with a power of over 640W will account for 40 - 50% of the company's total production capacity. Next year, most of the production capacity will reach the mainstream power level of 650 - 670W. The company expects to achieve a power level of about 670W for its advanced production capacity next year and 680 - 700W in the next two or three years, maintaining a 1 - 2 grade leading advantage over its main competitors [3][4].