Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market performance of live pigs is below expectations, with near - term weakness. The market pressure is high due to factors such as the limited increase in demand and the planned increase in group slaughter volume in August. The September contract is expected to be mainly weak, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Spot prices: The spot price in Henan is 14,430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Sichuan, it is 13,700 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Guangdong, it is 15,940 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 300 [2] - Futures prices: The price of the live pig 2509 contract is 14,055 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 20; the live pig 2511 contract is 13,850 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 35; the live pig 2601 contract is 14,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 [2] - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 31,356 lots, an increase of 2311 from the previous day, and the open interest is 40,971 lots, a decrease of 4228 from the previous day; the live pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 24,661 lots, an increase of 7289 from the previous day, and an open interest of 51,204 lots, an increase of 583 from the previous day; the live pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 13,759 lots, a decrease of 3042 from the previous day, and an open interest of 40,395 lots, an increase of 180 from the previous day [2] - Price differences: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is 375 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 120; the live pig 2511 contract basis is 580 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 135; the live pig 2601 contract basis is 250 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 65; the 9 - 11 spread is 205 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the 11 - 1 spread is - 330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 70 [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3] 3. Market Logic - The market had a consistent expectation of price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume - reduction and price - pulling were below expectations. There is panic among retail farmers and secondary fattening groups. The market pressure is high in August, and the September contract is expected to be weak. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, presenting a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation [4]
生猪：现货表现不及预期，近端弱势
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-04 01:57