长江期货市场交易指引-20250804

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Both stock index and treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillating" [1][6] - Black Building Materials: Rebar is rated as "Temporarily on the sidelines", iron ore as "Oscillating", and coking coal and coke as "Oscillating" [1][8][10] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is rated as "Range trading or on the sidelines", aluminum as "Buy on dips after a pullback", nickel as "Short on rallies or on the sidelines", tin as "Range trading", gold as "Range trading", and silver as "Range trading" [1][12][14][19] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are rated as "Oscillating"; polyolefin as "Wide - range oscillating"; soda ash's 09 contract as "Maintain short position" [1][23][25][28][33][34][36] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are rated as "Oscillating adjustment", apple and jujube as "Oscillating weakly" [1][38][39] - Agricultural and Livestock: Live pigs are rated as "Short on rallies", eggs as "Short on rallies", corn as "Range oscillating", soybean meal as "Limited upside", and oils as "High - level correction risk increasing" [1][40][42][44][46][48] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trading suggestions for various futures products based on market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It also analyzes the influencing factors of each product's price movement, including macro - economic data, policy changes, and industry - specific events [1][6][8][12] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Index: Due to weak US non - farm payroll data, internal strife within the Fed, high domestic margin trading, and the approaching mid - report disclosure period, the stock index is expected to oscillate [6] - Treasury Bonds: After a volatile week, the market is tired, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. After the market shock and repair caused by anti - involution expectations and Politburo Meeting uncertainties end, treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [6] Black Building Materials - Rebar: The price oscillated weakly last Friday. With over - optimistic macro expectations cooling and balanced supply - demand, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8] - Iron Ore: In July, the iron ore market first rose and then fell. With increasing overseas supply and expected decline in iron water demand, it is expected to oscillate strongly and can be used as a long - leg configuration when shorting other black varieties [8][9] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal supply has disturbances, and demand has rigid support. Coke supply has limited increase, and demand is strong. Both are expected to oscillate, and short - term key factors need to be closely monitored [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Due to the Fed's stance divergence, weak US economic data, and domestic industry policies, copper supply has disturbances, but it is in the off - season, and overseas inventory may flow back. Copper is expected to oscillate weakly, with support at 77600 [12] - Aluminum: With rising bauxite prices in Guinea and changes in supply and demand of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback [14] - Nickel: In the medium - to - long term, the nickel industry has over - supply, and demand growth is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton for the main contract [19] - Tin: With improving tin ore supply and weak downstream demand, it is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 250,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [20] - Gold and Silver: After the weak US non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased. However, considering the Fed's stance and concerns about the US fiscal situation, it is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback [21][22] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With high upstream production pressure, uncertain export sustainability, and insufficient fundamental support, it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on 4950 - 5150 [23][24] - Caustic Soda: With high supply, rigid but slow - growing demand, and the influence of macro factors, it is expected to oscillate, with the 09 contract focusing on 2500 - 2600 [25][26] - Styrene: With limited fundamental positives and a warming macro - environment, it is expected to oscillate, focusing on 7200 - 7500 [28][29] - Rubber: With high raw material costs and inventory changes, rubber is expected to oscillate, with pressure at 15000 [30][32] - Urea: With a slight decrease in supply, increasing demand from compound fertilizer enterprises, and stable industrial demand, it is expected to first weaken and then strengthen, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1820 - 1850 [33] - Methanol: With a slight increase in supply, stable demand from methanol - to - olefins, and weak traditional demand, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [34][35] - Polyolefin: Affected by macro factors and cost support, with weak demand in the off - season and slight inventory reduction, it is expected to correct in the short term, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35][36] - Soda Ash: With increasing supply and weak demand, the 09 contract is recommended to maintain a short position [36][37] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: With an increase in global cotton production and consumption in the new season, and weak downstream consumption, it is expected to oscillate and adjust [38] - Apple: With slow apple shipments and normal new - fruit growth, prices are under pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly [38][39] - Jujube: With the growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang and changes in the market supply and demand in the sales area, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39] Agricultural and Livestock - Live Pigs: With increasing supply and weak demand, the futures are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [40][42] - Eggs: With short - term seasonal factors and long - term supply pressure, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract and go long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts [42][44] - Corn: With short - term supply - demand games and long - term supply tightening, it is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread arbitrage [44][45] - Soybean Meal: With sufficient supply in the short term and potential supply gaps in the long term, it is recommended to be cautious about going long in the short term and go long on dips in the long term [46][47] - Oils: With increasing short - term correction risks and limited correction amplitudes, it is recommended to take profits on existing long positions and pay attention to the soybean - palm oil 09 spread rebound strategy [48][52]