从经济四周期配置大类资产8月篇：轰轰烈烈“反内卷”与10年周期再现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution campaign, initiated by the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, is a 10 - year recurrence of the Juglar cycle. It is expected to have a profound impact on China's economy, with effects surpassing the previous supply - side reform [1][13][16]. - The anti - involution drive rapidly boosts commodity prices, which is the third and final wave of the current Kitchin cycle's upward phase, likely to last until the end of the year [2][17]. - It has a positive impact on listed companies' performance and stock prices. The A - share market shows a wealth effect, attracting more off - market funds [2][24]. - The Fed is likely to resume rate cuts in September 2025 and enter a steep rate - cut phase in 2026. This will narrow the Sino - US interest rate gap, prompting the accelerated return of China's overseas funds [2]. - Global professional investment institutions are reducing their exposure to US assets and increasing their allocation to Chinese assets [2][28][30]. - Gold is in a technical adjustment, and a major opportunity may emerge at the end of the year [2][4][31]. - The anti - involution campaign initiates an upward trend in inflation, opening up downward space for long - term treasury bonds [3][35]. - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is likely to strengthen [3][38]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Four Economic Cycles - Kitchin Cycle: A short - term economic cycle of about 3.5 years. The current upward phase of the Chinese Kitchin cycle started in June 2023 and is expected to peak at the end of 2025, while the US cycle will peak in Q1 2026 [7]. - Juglar Cycle: A medium - term cycle of 9 - 10 years, also known as the manufacturing investment cycle. China's current Juglar cycle is in the upward phase and is expected to peak in early 2027 [8]. - Kuznets Cycle: An economic cycle related to the housing construction industry with an average length of about 20 years. The current Chinese Kuznets cycle is expected to bottom out around 2030 [9]. - Kondratieff Cycle: A long - term cycle of 50 - 60 years, also called the technological innovation cycle. The current Kondratieff depression started in 2020 due to the COVID - 19 shock, is expected to end around 2030, and then enter a 10 - year recovery phase. China is the center of the current technological innovation cycle, with AI and AI humanoid robots as the representative innovations [10]. 3.2 Anti - Involution Campaign - Campaign Initiation: On July 1, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting called for in - depth construction of a unified national market, focusing on "five unifications and one opening". Subsequently, various industries carried out anti - involution measures [11]. - Policy Response to the Juglar Cycle: It is a response to the manufacturing investment cycle reaching its peak. Similar to the supply - side reform 10 years ago, its goal is to reduce overcapacity, but this time it focuses on emerging industries and the service sector [13][15][16]. - Differences from the Previous Supply - Side Reform: It focuses on emerging industries and the service sector, and is expected to have a more far - reaching impact on the Chinese economy [16]. 3.3 Impact on Asset Classes - Commodities: The anti - involution campaign drives up commodity prices, which is the third wave of the current Kitchin cycle's upward phase. Prices are expected to rise until the end of the year. After a second - wave correction in late July, they are likely to enter the main upward wave in late August [17][21][23]. - Equities: The A - share market shows a wealth effect, attracting off - market funds. The decline at the end of July was a pull - back after breaking through the 3,500 - point platform. The CSI 300 index will have more upward momentum, and the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes are expected to rise more strongly [24][39]. - Gold: Gold is in a technical adjustment, and a major opportunity may emerge at the end of 2025 [31][39]. - Bonds: The anti - involution campaign initiates inflation, opening up downward space for long - term treasury bonds [35][39]. - Foreign Exchange: China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB is likely to strengthen [38][39].