螺纹钢周报：成本支撑转弱，盘面震荡回调-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 7th Politburo meeting in July proposed "preventing involutionary vicious competition", which was listed as a key task in the 2025 government work report and further clarified in the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July. The policy boosts macro - market confidence and leads to a general increase in commodity prices. However, the PPI shows that the market price still faces downward pressure [71]. - Fundamentally, steel mills have good overall profits and no obvious intention to cut production. The iron - water output has a slight decline but remains at a high level. The supply of five major steel products has increased slightly, while the weekly output of rebar has a slight decline. The demand for building materials has started to decline, and the total social inventory of five major steel products has increased, showing a contradiction between supply and demand [71]. - On the raw material side, the prices of coal and coke have risen sharply before, driving up the prices of finished products. Recently, as the market sentiment returns to fundamentals, the raw material prices have fallen, and the cost support for the finished product futures has weakened. It is recommended to operate in the short - term [72]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Part 1: Review of Rebar Futures Market - 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: From January to June, national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half of 2025; in June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year [7]. - Policy information: The US increased the tariff on Canadian goods from 25% to 35% starting from August 1st; the Politburo meeting in July decided to hold the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October and analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work for the second half of the year [7]. - 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No detailed information about the rebar main contract trend is provided other than the SHIBOR data which shows a decline in interest rate from July 1st to August 1st, 2025, with a bullish signal [15]. 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment - Macro, Comparison, and Basis - 2.2 Macro - Monetary Price - The SHIBOR on August 1st, 2025 was 1.5490, and on July 1st, 2025 was 1.6170. The monthly interest rate decreased, indicating a bullish signal [15]. - 2.3 Comparison - Domestic and Foreign - No specific content is provided. - 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The prices and their changes of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal are presented. For example, the price of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3,370 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.30% and a monthly increase of 6.98% [23]. - 2.5 Rebar Main Basis - No specific content is provided. 3.3 Part 3: Overview of Rebar Spot Supply and Demand - 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No specific content is provided. - 3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - No specific content is provided. - 3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - No specific content is provided. - 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - No specific content is provided. - 3.5 Electric Furnace Profit - No specific content is provided. - 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - No specific content is provided. - 3.7 Daily Average Iron - Water Output - No specific content is provided. - 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - On August 1st, 2025, the output of five major steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 780.24 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.027821688 and a month - on - month increase of 0.000294868 [46]. - 3.9 Weekly Rebar Output - On August 1st, 2025, the weekly rebar output was 211.06 tons, with a month - on - month decline of 0.004246084 and a year - on - year increase of 0.067307206 [49]. - 3.10 Steel Mill Steel Inventory - On August 1st, 2025, the steel mill steel inventory was 484.52 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 0.17031405 and a month - on - month increase of 0.009479759 [52]. - 3.11 Steel Social Inventory - No specific content is provided. - 3.13 Rebar Social Inventory - No specific content is provided. - 3.14 Building Materials Transaction - No specific content is provided. - 3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price - No specific content is provided. - 3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - No specific content is provided. - 3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transaction - No specific content is provided. 3.4 Part 4: Outlook for the Future - The policy boosts market confidence, but the PPI shows that the market price still has downward pressure. The supply of steel products has a slight increase, while the demand for building materials has declined, and the social inventory has increased. The cost support for the finished product futures has weakened, and short - term operation is recommended [71][72].