中辉期货原油早报-20250804

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most products are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, urea, propylene [1][2] - Some products are rated as "Bearish", such as methanol and asphalt [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For most products, the market is facing various pressures such as supply increase, weak demand, and lack of macro - positive factors, leading to a downward or cautious outlook [1][2] - For example, in the case of crude oil, OPEC+ production increase and the entry into the second half of the peak season put pressure on oil prices [3][6] Group 3: Summaries by Product Crude Oil - Market Performance: On August 1, international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 2.79%, Brent dropped 2.83%, and SC dropped 0.73% [5] - Basic Logic: OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, and the peak season is in the second half, so the oil price center may decline [6] - Fundamentals: OPEC+ will increase production by 54.7 million barrels per day in September, and US crude oil production in May increased by 2.4 million barrels per day. US commercial crude oil and strategic crude oil reserves increased [7] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [505 - 520] [8] LPG - Market Performance: On August 1, the PG main contract closed at 3987 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% [11] - Basic Logic: The cost - end oil price fell, and Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price. Although the fundamentals are okay, the cost - end is the main drag [12] - Strategy Recommendation: Try short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of PG [3850 - 3950] [13] L - Market Performance: L2509 contract closed at 7317 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan). The North China basis was - 97 (down 7) [17] - Basic Logic: The market returns to weak fundamentals. Most devices restarted, increasing supply pressure. Social inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks [19] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions, and industrial customers can sell hedging [19] PP - Market Performance: PP2509 closed at 6098 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the East China basis was 19 (up 13) [24] - Basic Logic: Supply and demand are both weak, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. New production capacity will be released in the third quarter, and downstream replenishment is insufficient [26] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread [26] PVC - Market Performance: V2601 closed at 5015 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan), and the Changzhou basis was - 95 (down 4) [31] - Basic Logic: The market returns to weak fundamentals. New devices are put into operation, and demand is in the off - season. Social inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks [32] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of V [4900 - 5100] [32] PX - Market Performance: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6812 yuan/ton (down 116 yuan) [36] - Basic Logic: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory is high, and there is no macro - positive factor recently [37] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce long positions, sell call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of PX [6720 - 6840] [38] PTA - Market Performance: On August 1, PTA in East China was 4740 yuan/ton (down 86 yuan); TA09 closed at 4744 yuan/ton (down 64 yuan) [40] - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and the tight - balance situation in August is expected to ease [41] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce long positions, sell call options, and pay attention to the possibility of expanding the processing fee. Pay attention to the range of TA [4720 - 4800] [42] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Market Performance: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4480 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan); EG09 closed at 4405 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan) [44] - Basic Logic: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory is low [45] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions (partially reduce), sell call options, and pay attention to low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of EG [4340 - 4410] [46] Glass - Market Performance: The spot market price decreased, and the futures price center moved down [49] - Basic Logic: There is no super - expected policy in the Politburo meeting, and the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line. Inventory is mainly transferred, not consumed by the terminal market [50] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of FG [1070 - 1130] [51] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The spot price of heavy soda ash was stable, and the futures price rose. The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [54] - Basic Logic: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down, and the supply - demand surplus pattern has not improved significantly. Warehouse receipts and forecasts increase, and industrial hedging exerts pressure [55] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait patiently for the pullback to be in place [55] Caustic Soda - Market Performance: The spot price decreased, and the futures price closed down. The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [59] - Basic Logic: Supply - side device maintenance led to a decline in industry start - up. Downstream alumina plants resumed production, but inventory is high year - on - year [60] - Strategy Recommendation: None provided in the text Methanol - Market Performance: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2385 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and the main 09 contract closed at 2393 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan) [62] - Basic Logic: Domestic and foreign devices resumed production, increasing supply pressure. Demand is expected to weaken, and social inventory is accumulating [63] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of MA [2350 - 2400] [64] Asphalt - Basic Logic: The cost - end oil price has room to decline, supply increases, and demand decreases, and the inventory is accumulating [2] - Strategy Recommendation: Try short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of BU [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - Basic Logic: Supply and demand are loose, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period [2] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions or conduct a 1 - 2 reverse spread, and go long on the PP processing fee on the futures market [2]