Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Black Industry: High-level oscillation for iron ore, coking coal, rolled steel, and glass [2] - Financial Industry: Rebound for SSE 50 Index Futures/Options; oscillation for CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury bonds; high-level oscillation for gold and silver; weak operation for pulp; oscillation for logs; oscillation for oils and fats; strong oscillation for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean No. 2; oscillation for soybean No. 1; weak oscillation for live pigs; oscillation for rubber; wait-and-see for PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF [3][4][6][8][10][11] 2. Core Views - Black Industry: In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are fair, but there are risks of adjustment after the release of short-term sentiment. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the upward momentum is insufficient. The demand for steel is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and the supply-demand pressure may increase. The demand for glass is difficult to recover significantly, and attention should be paid to the improvement of actual demand [2] - Financial Industry: The upward momentum of the market is weakening, and it is recommended to reduce the long positions of stock index futures. The trend of Treasury bonds is falling back, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly. Gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [3][4][6] - Light Industry and Agricultural Products: The price of pulp is expected to run weakly, and the price of logs is expected to oscillate. The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate, and the price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate strongly. The price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly [6][8] - Soft Commodities and Polyester: The price of rubber is expected to maintain a firm trend. The supply and demand of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are in different states, and it is recommended to wait and see [10][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron Ore: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with a risk of short-term adjustment after the release of sentiment. The total global iron ore shipment is 32 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 918,000 tons, and the supply remains loose. The iron ore arrival has declined in the past two weeks, and it is expected to bottom out and rebound. The iron water output has decreased by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons month-on-month, but it is still at a high level. It is recommended to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Due to the recent large increase, the exchange has adjusted the limit for coking coal, and the adjustment range of coking coal is also large. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the willingness of downstream to receive high-priced resources has decreased. Coke has completed four rounds of price increases, and the fifth round has not been implemented yet. Steel mills have high profits, high iron water output, and are actively purchasing coke [2] - Rolled Steel: After the Politburo meeting, the market trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, and the total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance. The profits of the five major steel products are fair, the output is flat, and the inventory may continue to accumulate. It is recommended to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - Glass: After the Politburo meeting, the market trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The start-up rate is basically stable, and the weekly melting volume has increased slightly. The downstream inventory has room for replenishment, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The demand for glass is difficult to recover significantly in the long term [2] Financial Industry - Stock Index Futures/Options: The performance of the previous trading day was mixed, with some sectors having capital inflows and others having outflows. The interest income of newly issued bonds after August 8, 2025, will be subject to VAT. The state will accelerate the approval and establishment of new policy-based financial instruments, and the issuance of government bonds is expected to speed up. It is recommended to reduce the long positions of stock index futures [3][4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond is flat, and the market interest rate has rebounded. The central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 66.33 billion yuan on the day. It is recommended to hold long positions of Treasury bonds lightly [4] - Gold and Silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The debt problem in the United States may worsen, and the de-dollarization attribute of gold is prominent. The substitution effect of gold for bonds has weakened, and the geopolitical risk has decreased marginally. The short-term data in the United States has affected the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the risk aversion sentiment has increased. Gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4][6] - Paper Pulp: The spot market price of paper pulp is differentiated, with the price of softwood pulp continuing to decline and the price of hardwood pulp remaining stable. The ex-works price of softwood pulp has decreased, and the cost support for the pulp price has weakened. The profitability of the paper industry is low, the inventory pressure of paper mills is large, and the demand is in the off-season. It is expected that the paper pulp price will run weakly [6] - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, and the demand is in the seasonal off-season. The shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China in June has increased by 0.3% month-on-month. The expected arrival volume this week is 221,000 cubic meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 54%. The inventory at ports has decreased by 120,000 cubic meters. The spot market price is running strongly, and the cost support has increased. It is expected that the log price will oscillate [6] Light Industry and Agricultural Products - Oils and Fats: The aging of oil palm trees in Malaysia may limit production growth, and the export in July has declined. India will continue to actively import palm oil before the Diwali Festival in mid-October, and the demand for biodiesel in Indonesia is expected to be good. The international oil price fluctuates, affecting the demand for US soybean oil biodiesel. The domestic import of soybeans in July and August remains high, the oil mill operating rate is high, and the inventory of the three major oils and fats continues to increase. It is expected that the price of oils and fats will oscillate [6][8] - Meal and Beans: The result of the Sino-US trade negotiation is not as expected, and the import tariff of US soybeans remains high. The premium of Brazilian soybeans is high due to concentrated demand. The US soybean production area supports a good harvest, but the weather in August is uncertain. The domestic supply pressure is significant, the soybean arrival volume in July and August remains high, the oil mill operating rate is high, and the soybean meal inventory is high and may continue to accumulate. The demand is weak, and the feed demand is expected to shrink. It is expected that the price of soybean meal will oscillate strongly [8] - Live Pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs continues to decline, with a national average of 124.91 kilograms. The slaughtering enterprise has increased the purchase of low-price standard pigs, and the average purchase weight has decreased. The average settlement price of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, but the price has declined from the high level. The average operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises has decreased to 31.97%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.97 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises will continue to decline slightly, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline month-on-month [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has led to an expected shortage of rubber supply in Southeast Asia, and the raw material prices in Thailand and China are firm. The supply in the main natural rubber producing areas at home and abroad is affected by weather factors, and the raw material supply is tight, pushing up the purchase price. The demand for the domestic tire industry has shown a differentiated trend, with the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises increasing by 1.93 percentage points to 70.7% and that of full-steel tire sample enterprises increasing by 0.25 percentage points to 62.2%. The inventory of rubber at Qingdao Port has decreased slightly. It is expected that the price of natural rubber will remain firm [10] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: Under the pressure of OPEC+ production increase, the oil price has room to fall, the PTA load has oscillated and declined, and the polyester load has slightly oscillated. The short-term PXN spread is relatively strong, and the PX price fluctuates with the oil price. The cost of PTA has oscillated and weakened, the overall supply has recovered slowly, and the downstream polyester factory load has shown a slight downward trend. The MEG arrival volume has begun to increase, and the port inventory may start to accumulate. The supply of PR is stable, and the demand side replenishes goods at low prices. The demand for PF is insufficient, and the cost side may also be weak. It is recommended to wait and see for these products [10][11]
新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-4）-20250804
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-08-04 02:07