LPG：进口成本下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene, including futures prices,持仓&成交, spreads, and key industrial chain data. It also provides market information such as Saudi CP expectations and domestic device maintenance plans [2][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: PG2509 closed at 3,965 with a daily decline of 0.95% and a night - session close of 3,923 with a decline of 1.06%; PG2510 closed at 4,404 with a daily decline of 0.83% and a night - session close of 4,367 with a decline of 0.84%; PL2601 closed at 6,474 with a daily decline of 1.08% and a night - session close of 6,460 with a decline of 0.22%; PL2602 closed at 6,561 with a daily decline of 0.73% and a night - session close of 6,521 with a decline of 0.61% [2] - 持仓&成交: For PG2509, the trading volume was 67,049 (a decrease of 64,479) and the open interest was 89,961 (an increase of 4,242); for PG2510, the trading volume was 19,509 (a decrease of 11,819) and the open interest was 65,630 (a decrease of 737); for PL2601, the trading volume was 3,454 (an increase of 1,111) and the open interest was 4,575 (a decrease of 125); for PL2602, the trading volume was 77 (a decrease of 125) and the open interest was 1,127 (a decrease of 29) [2] - Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 405 (previous day: 397); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 435 (previous day: 427); the spreads between Shandong, East China, and South China propylene and PL01 contract were - 269, - 124, and - 149 respectively (previous day: - 300, - 195, - 220) [2] - Key Industrial Chain Data: This week, the PDH operating rate was 72.6% (last week: 73.1%), the MTBE operating rate was 67.8% (last week: 69.0%), and the alkylation operating rate was 48.8% (last week: 46.9%) [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [10] 3.3 Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations: On July 31, 2025, the expected price of propane in September was 528 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 498 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The expected price of propane in October was 543 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 513 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [11] - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined; Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. starting maintenance in late November 2023, with the end time to be determined, etc. [12] - Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans: Many domestic liquefied gas factories have device maintenance plans, including Shandong's Shengli Heavy Oil, Haike Ruilin, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and loss volumes [12]