国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250804

Report Overview - Date: August 4, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products 1. Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm Oil: Wait for low - level long - position building as the influence of macro and crude oil wanes [2]. - Soybean Oil: Mainly in a shock - adjustment phase, with attention on the China - US trade agreement [2]. - Soybean Meal: Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, while Dalian soybean meal oscillated relatively strongly [2]. - Soybean No.1: Rebound and oscillate [2]. - Corn: Oscillate [2]. - Sugar: Pay attention to the crushing progress in Brazil [2]. - Cotton: Be aware of the impact of external markets [2]. - Eggs: Run weakly [2]. - Pigs: The spot performance is below expectations, and the near - end is weak [2]. - Peanuts: Focus on the weather in the producing areas [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's daily - session closing price had a 0.11% increase, and the night - session had a - 1.41% decrease; soybean oil's daily - session closing price rose 1.00%, and the night - session fell - 0.58%. The trading volume and open interest of both had corresponding changes [5]. - Macro and Industry News: US July non - farm employment growth was lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose slightly. OPEC + is expected to approve a new round of production increase plans, and the Malaysian palm oil production in July increased by 7.07% month - on - month [6][7][8]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of - 1 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean meal 2509 had a 0.13% increase in the daily - session and a 0.63% increase in the night - session; DCE soybean No.1 2509 decreased by 0.36% in the daily - session and increased by 0.17% in the night - session. Spot prices in different regions also had changes [10]. - Macro and Industry News: US soybean futures fell for the second consecutive week due to factors such as good weather in the US soybean - producing areas, weak demand from China, and potential uncertainties in China - US trade. The market is waiting for the USDA's new global supply - demand report on August 12 [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of + 1, and soybean No.1 has a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Corn - Fundamental Data: The prices of important spot markets such as Northeast China, Jinzhou, and Guangdong had corresponding changes. Futures prices of different contracts also fluctuated, and trading volume, open interest, and basis had their own values [14]. - Macro and Industry News: The port prices of northern corn were stable, the price of Guangdong Shekou increased, and the prices of corn in Northeast and North China had different trends. The prices of substitute products such as sorghum and barley were also provided [15]. - Trend Intensity: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [16]. Sugar - Fundamental Data: The prices of raw sugar, mainstream spot, and futures had year - on - year changes, and the spreads also had corresponding changes [17]. - Macro and Industry News: Brazil's central - southern crushing progress accelerated, India's monsoon precipitation was higher than normal, and the import and production data of different countries and regions in different seasons were reported [17][18][19]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [20]. Cotton - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of different contracts such as CF2509 and CY2509 had changes, and spot prices in different regions and the prices of related products also fluctuated. Spreads also had corresponding changes [22]. - Macro and Industry News: The domestic cotton spot trading was good, the price of pure - cotton yarn followed the decline of cotton, and the domestic cotton - textile market was weak. ICE cotton futures fell last Friday [23][24]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [27]. Eggs - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of different contracts such as eggs 2509 and eggs 2601 had changes, and spot prices in different regions and related feed and livestock prices also had corresponding values [29]. - Trend Intensity: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [29]. Pigs - Fundamental Data: Spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong, futures prices of different contracts, trading volume, open interest, and spreads all had corresponding values [32]. - Market Logic: The market's expected price increase from late July to early August did not meet expectations, and the market pressure is large. The 9 - month contract is expected to run weakly, and the spread structure has changed to a reverse spread [34]. - Trend Intensity: Pigs have a trend intensity of - 1 [33]. Peanuts - Fundamental Data: Spot prices in different regions such as Liaoning and Henan were stable, futures prices of different contracts had slight declines, and trading volume, open interest, and spreads had their own values [36]. - Spot Market Focus: The spot markets in different regions such as Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong had different trading situations [37]. - Trend Intensity: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [38].