美国二季度经济点评：超预期的GDP与放缓的经济

Economic Overview - The actual GDP growth rate for the US in Q2 was 3%, exceeding expectations of 2.6% and the previous value of -0.5%[3] - The contribution of net exports to GDP shifted from a drag of -4.61% in Q1 to a boost of 4.99% in Q2[3] - Inventory contributions turned negative at -3.17% in Q2, compared to a positive contribution of 2.59% in Q1[3] Consumption Insights - Consumer spending showed a mild recovery with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter[4] - Durable goods consumption improved from -0.28% to 0.27%, while service consumption rose from 0.30% to 0.53%[4] - Non-durable goods consumption declined, contributing 0.18% compared to 0.29% in Q1, reflecting the impact of tariff policies[4] Investment Trends - Private investment decreased significantly, with an overall growth rate of -3.09% in Q2, down from 3.9% in Q1[4] - Equipment investment's contribution to GDP fell from 1.11% to 0.26%, despite knowledge-based investments maintaining growth[4] - Residential and construction investments continued to face pressure in a high-interest-rate environment, with contributions declining further[4] Trade and Inventory Dynamics - Imports decreased by 30.3% in Q2, a smaller decline than the previous quarter's increase of 37.9%[5] - Exports turned negative at -1.8% due to the impact of tariffs, indicating a shift in trade dynamics[5] - Inventory consumption in Q2 was greater than the accumulation in Q1, contributing -3.17% to GDP[5] Government Spending - Federal government spending remained low, contributing only 0.08% to GDP, while state and local government spending increased to 0.32%[5] - Defense spending rebounded to 0.08%, while non-defense spending continued to decline[5] Future Outlook - The economic growth in Q2 relied heavily on trade fluctuations, with weak performance in consumption, investment, and government spending[11] - The expectation of continued pressure on consumption and investment in Q3 due to tariff impacts and delayed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve[11] - The upcoming quarter is critical for assessing economic risks, particularly regarding inflation and labor market changes[12]