软商品日报：需求疲软及贸易不确定性施压，棉花震荡调整-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend ratings for both sugar and cotton are "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and plant number shorter and fewer compared to the same period last year. Beet growth is generally good, but recent heavy rainfall in Inner Mongolia may lead to pests and diseases. Internationally, the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere need to be monitored [1] - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. In July, Xinjiang is expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Although the total cotton inventory is decreasing, the downstream market shows off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Weather changes and tariff uncertainties need continuous attention [1] Data Summary 1. Price Data - External Market Quotes: On August 2, 2025, the price of US sugar was 16.2 dollars, and on August 3, 2025, it remained at 16.2 dollars, with a 0.00% change. The price of US cotton was 66.42 dollars on both August 2 and 3, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] - Spot Prices: From July 31 to August 1, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained at 6030.0, with a 0.00% change; the price of sugar in Kunming dropped from 5900.0 to 5880.0, a - 0.34% change. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.42% change, while the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15350.0 to 15400.0, a 0.33% change [3] 2. Spread Data - From August 2 to 3, 2025, the spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 all had 0.00% changes. The basis of sugar 01, 05, 09 and cotton 01, 05, 09 also remained unchanged with 0.00% changes [3] 3. Import - related Data - From July 31 to August 1, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA increased from 77.95 to 78.5, a 0.71% change. The sugar import profit remained at 1606.0, with a 0.00% change [3] 4. Option Data - For options, the implied volatility of SR509C5700 is 0.0804, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 7.11. The implied volatility of SR509P5700 is 0.0795. The implied volatility of CF509C13600 is 0.1024, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 9.12. The implied volatility of CF509P13600 is 0.0983 [3] 5. Warehouse Receipt Data - From July 31 to August 1, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 19473.0 to 19443.0, a - 0.15% change, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 8940.0 to 8807.0, a - 1.49% change [3] Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a large - scale domestic futures company with a registered capital of 600 million RMB, wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd. It holds various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [2][8]