对二甲苯：供应边际宽松，月差大幅回落，PTA：趋势偏弱，月差关注正套，MEG：单边趋势仍偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The trends of PX, PTA, and MEG are all偏弱. PX is recommended for monthly spread reverse arbitrage and shorting PXN on rallies; PTA is suggested for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels; MEG is also recommended for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, with a downward - driven unilateral trend [5][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - As the August 8 deadline for the peace agreement approaches, the impact of US President Donald Trump's threat to impose secondary sanctions and tariffs on countries doing business with Russia is uncertain. Trump deployed two nuclear - powered submarines on August 1 in response to a "highly provocative statement" by a Russian senior official. If secondary sanctions or tariffs are implemented, 4 million barrels per day of oil could be removed from the market, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel [3][5]. Price and Spread Data - Futures Prices: The previous day's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6812, 4744, 4405, 6444, and 527.9 respectively, with daily price changes of - 1.67%, - 1.33%, - 0.20%, - 0.31%, and - 0.64% [2]. - Monthly Spreads: The previous day's closing prices of PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, MEG9 - 1, PF9 - 1, and SC9 - 10 were 22, - 38, - 34, - 64, and 4.6 respectively, with daily price changes of - 42, - 6, - 7, - 6, and - 0.6 [2]. - Spot Prices: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 845.67 dollars/ton, 4740 yuan/ton, 4480 yuan/ton, 603.88 dollars/ton, and 71.39 dollars/barrel respectively, with daily price changes of - 13.66, - 86, - 12, - 7.12, and - 1.31 [2]. - Spot Processing Margins: The previous day's spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil were 247.33, 192.91, 137.95, - 0.61, and - 6.01 respectively, with daily price changes of - 10.7, 7.72, 21.83, 26.76, and 0 [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all - 1, indicating a "weak - biased" trend [5]. Views and Suggestions - PX: In August, there are no new PX maintenance plans, but some units are set to restart, while PTA device operating rates are expected to decline. PX supply - demand turns to a loose pattern, and the short - term suggestion is to short on rallies [5]. - PTA: The polyester factory operating rate is at a low level, and the willingness to hold raw materials has decreased. PTA factories sell at high - low basis, and the 09 contract has a bearish situation. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels [6]. - MEG: From a valuation perspective, the impact on the black sector is fading, and the overall valuation of coal - chemical industry is falling. The domestic device operating rate will continue to rise. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, while being vigilant about the long - squeeze situation [7].