铜周报20250803：宏观向上，供需有改善迹象-20250804

Report Summary Core View The macroeconomic situation is positive, and there are signs of improvement in the supply - demand relationship of copper [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - The selling sentiment of copper holders has decreased, and they are holding prices for sales, resulting in a firm premium for copper spot [10] - The LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation has slightly narrowed week - on - week [12] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.54 per ton week - on - week to - $42.09 per ton, still negative [14] - The inventory of copper concentrates at nine ports decreased by 39,300 tons week - on - week to 521,600 tons [17] - The spread between refined and scrap copper has weakened [18] - China's electrolytic copper production in July increased by 3.47% month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year [20] - There is an import inversion for copper [22] - The week - on - week decline of electrolytic copper spot inventory has slowed down, while the bonded area inventory has continued to increase week - on - week [25] - LME copper inventory has continued to increase, and COMEX copper inventory has continued to accumulate [28] - The operating rate of refined copper rods has increased week - on - week. With the weakening of the market and the increase in orders for refined copper rods, the operating rate is expected to continue to increase next week [30] - From July 1st to 27th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 15% year - on - year but decreased by 17% compared with the same period of last month [31] - The overall production volume of photovoltaic modules in August has limited month - on - month change [34] - The total planned production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August decreased by 4.9% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year, with air conditioner production decreasing by 2.8% [36] Macroeconomic Data - The Politburo meeting pointed out that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner [39] - The US core PCE in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a four - month high [43] - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support interest rate cuts [44]