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棕榈油:宏观及原油退潮,等待低位布多,豆油:震荡调整为主,关注中美贸易协议
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-04 02:17

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - For palm oil, with the ebb of macro and crude oil factors, wait for low levels to go long [1] - For soybean oil, the market will mainly fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the China-US trade agreement [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices and Changes: Palm oil's day - session closing price was up 0.11%, night - session down 1.41%; soybean oil's day - session up 1.00%, night - session down 0.58%; rapeseed oil's day - session up 0.15%, night - session down 0.60%. Malaysian palm oil (BMD) was up 0.35%, and CBOT soybean oil was down 1.53% [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil trading volume increased by 33,046 lots, open interest decreased by 342 lots; soybean oil trading volume increased by 128,812 lots, open interest increased by 22,566 lots; rapeseed oil trading volume decreased by 44,456 lots, open interest decreased by 5,524 lots [2] - Spot Prices and Changes: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) price remained unchanged; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) increased by 30 yuan/ton; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) remained unchanged; Malaysian palm oil FOB price decreased by 5 dollars/ton [2] - Basis and Spreads: Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 10 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 136 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was 6 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 614 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil was - 636 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US Labor Market: US non - farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, lower than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly, and the total number of new jobs in May and June was revised down by 258,000 [3][4] - Fed's Stance: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Harmaque said the July employment report was "disappointing" but did not mean the Fed should cut rates at the policy meeting [4] - OPEC+ Output: OPEC+ is expected to approve a new round of production increase on Sunday. Some members may increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in September, but the final increase may be lower [4] - Palm Oil Production: Malaysian palm oil production from July 1 - 31, 2025, increased by 7.07% month - on - month [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [6]