SH月报：近端现货价格为锚情绪推拉难移格局-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upper - space of caustic soda is limited, and there is pressure at the 2800 price level. The recent supply - demand remains loose. With the return of previously overhauled devices, supply pressure persists, and downstream demand remains dull with no obvious positive factors. The market mainly weighs the possible negative feedback on the operating rate caused by the decline in liquid chlorine prices and the potential impact of domestic exports. Considering the approaching delivery of the near - end contract, the upper - space of the near - end is expected to be limited without obvious event shocks [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In July, domestic caustic soda futures showed a trend of rising from a low level and strengthening with fluctuations. Taking the main contract SE2509 as an example, it rebounded from the June low of 2207 yuan/ton to the intra - cycle high of 2757 yuan/ton, with a rise of 28.23%. The strong performance of caustic soda futures in the cycle was related to the near - end spot pattern and July policy expectations. The near - end spot strengthened as the previous pessimistic expectations were gradually corrected. The market's discussion on the comprehensive profit, inventory, and possible production cuts of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises heated up due to the rapid decline in the price of associated liquid chlorine. Upstream enterprises raised the price of liquid caustic soda, and downstream alumina enterprises also increased their procurement prices. In addition, the "anti - involution" series of policies in July boosted the commodity sentiment, and the caustic soda market showed an upward trend [15]. 2. Spot Prices - 32% caustic soda: The prices in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan are presented, with specific price data and trends shown in the figures [18][22]. - 50% caustic soda: The prices in regions like Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Inner Mongolia are provided, along with their price trends [24]. - 99% flake caustic soda: The prices in Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang are given, and the price trends are also shown [25]. 3. Price Spreads - Model price spreads: The price spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong, are analyzed, with specific data and trends presented [33]. - Regional price spreads: The price spreads of 32% caustic soda and 50% caustic soda between different regions are studied, including the spreads between Zhejiang - Shandong, Jiangsu - Shandong, etc., and the corresponding data and trends are shown [33][34]. 4. Supply Side - Overall supply situation: China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. The production capacity in Southwest, South, and Northeast China is relatively low. In June, the domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.5122 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. In July, the expected domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.6178 million tons, with an expected month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The operating rate of domestic chlor - alkali enterprises in July was 58.01%, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% compared to June (83.01%) [50]. - Operating rate: The weekly operating rates of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda are presented, along with their trends [51]. - Overhaul situation: A list of chlor - alkali device overhauls is provided, including long - term shutdown capacities and overhauls in July. Some enterprises have completed overhauls and resumed production, while others have planned overhauls in August and September [57]. - Flake caustic soda device operation: The operating conditions of flake caustic soda devices of various manufacturers are described, including overhauls, normal operations, and planned overhauls [61]. 5. Import and Export - In June 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 48,011 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 113.00%. The cumulative imports from January to June were 181,468 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 97.03%. Exports of liquid caustic soda were 291,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.31% and a month - on - month increase of 13.70%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 1.7255 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.79%. Imports of solid caustic soda were 862.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 63.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.67%. Exports of solid caustic soda were 59,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 79.32% and a year - on - year increase of 79.82% [65][68]. 6. Demand Side - Alumina demand: In July, the operating capacity of alumina enterprises was at a relatively high level. Although the supply - demand fundamentals had a certain negative impact on prices, the procurement demand from some downstream enterprises in the southern region and the short - term overhauls of some calcination devices in some enterprises led to a tight supply of spot goods in some areas, driving up the alumina price. The alumina market was also affected by macro - policies, but the actual impact on existing capacities was limited [73]. - Viscose staple fiber demand: In July, the domestic viscose staple fiber market was stable with fluctuations. The average monthly price was 12,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan/ton compared to the previous month, a decline of 0.63%. The cost side weakened as the prices of raw materials decreased. The industry's supply increased as some previously shut - down or reduced - production devices resumed production. The inventory decreased, and the downstream demand increased slightly, resulting in more stable quotes from manufacturers and an increase in the number of signed contracts [74]. 7. Inventory - In July, the overall inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories maintained a high - level oscillation, while the inventory of flake caustic soda continued to decline. There were differences among different manufacturers in Shandong. Enterprises with low inventory pressure had a strong willingness to raise prices, while those with moderate inventory adjusted prices according to market conditions. As of August 1, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories was 266,300 tons, basically unchanged compared to June 27, 2025 (266,600 tons). The inventory of domestic flake caustic soda factories was 19,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.49% compared to May 2, 2025 [97]. 8. Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. Each ton of caustic soda production requires 1.51 tons of raw salt, accounting for about 12% - 18% of the total cost, and the power consumption per ton is about 2300 - 2400 kWh, accounting for about 60% of the total cost. In July, the cost side weakened, while the spot price of caustic soda strengthened, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali showed a recovery [103]. 9. Chlorine - consuming Downstream - The report presents data on the PVC benchmark spot price, PVC powder weekly operating rate, and the comprehensive profit of the calcium carbide method in the northwest integrated chlor - alkali industry. It also shows the production capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as epoxy propane, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and trichloromethane [115]. 10. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides data on the total production, cumulative production, export volume, net export volume, cumulative net export volume, apparent consumption, cumulative apparent consumption, consumption, cumulative consumption, and inventory changes of caustic soda from 2024 to 2025, along with their year - on - year growth rates [142].