Guoxin Securities·2025-08-04 02:21Group 1 - The core conclusion is that high-quality cyclical stocks are expected to show a fundamental turning point, which is key to their potential for excess returns. Currently, banks with a high proportion of retail exposure are still under pressure, but signs indicate that the pressure on quality stocks is easing. This is due to the gradual clearance of retail non-performing loans and the expectation that net interest margins will stabilize first [3][5][29] - The report predicts that the retail non-performing loan generation for listed banks will remain high until the second half of 2026, but quality banks are expected to clear their non-performing loans ahead of the industry. For quality regional banks with strong risk management capabilities, the turning point for retail non-performing loans may be approaching [3][8][18] - The net interest margin for some quality regional banks is expected to stabilize first due to a noticeable narrowing in the decline of new loan interest rates and the high proportion of long-term savings deposits, which provides greater room for optimization [3][22][29] Group 2 - The macro narrative of anti-involution is strengthening, and long-term economic optimism is increasing, which enhances the winning probability of cyclical stocks. Although the current economic fundamentals remain weak, the long-term optimistic expectations have been reinforced. The report suggests that further demand-side policies are needed to translate expectations into reality, which is a significant factor in recent market adjustments [4][27][29] - The report recommends selecting undervalued high-quality cyclical stocks for excess returns in the second half of the year, while high-dividend stocks still hold significant value but are unlikely to yield excess returns. The performance of individual stocks is expected to diverge, making stock selection crucial [29][31] - The report highlights specific banks such as Ningbo Bank, Changshu Bank, Changsha Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and China Merchants Bank as key recommendations for investors looking for quality cyclical stocks with potential for early recovery in fundamentals [29][31]