铅锌日评：区间整理-20250804

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Short - term lead prices are expected to trade in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro factors such as the "anti - involution" sentiment in China and the US non - farm payroll data have an impact. Fundamentally, there is an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continuous inventory accumulation. Short - term zinc prices are also expected to trade in a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market - Price and Market Indicators: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.75% to 16,550 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract remained unchanged at 16,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.73% to 47,634 lots, while the open interest increased by 5.10% to 76,338 lots. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 275,325 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 3.87% to 59,948 tons [1]. - Industry News: From July 25th to July 31st, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 63.9%, a 0.53 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 44.4%, a 3.7 - percentage - point increase; and the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.86%, remaining flat. The pb50TC processing fee of a silver - lead mine in North China was lowered to - 500 yuan/metal ton at the end of July [1]. - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is relatively stable, while secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to high waste lead - acid battery prices and limited raw material supply. As the inventory of electrolytic lead factories decreases, the market's acceptance of high - priced secondary lead has improved. The market still anticipates peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspended purchases at the end of the month for inventory checks [1]. Zinc Market - Price and Market Indicators: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract decreased by 0.11% to 22,320 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 42.45% to 105,121 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2.17% to 108,084 lots. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 100,825 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.50% to 14,982 tons [1]. - Industry News: From July 25th to July 31st, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 56.77%, a 2.65 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 48.24%, a 2.79 - percentage - point decrease; and the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.13%, a 0.14 - percentage - point increase. On July 31st, Nexa announced the completion of key milestones in the first phase of its Cerro Pasco integration project. The company's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 74,000 metal tons, a 9% increase from the previous quarter but a 12% decrease year - on - year. The total sales volume of refined zinc and zinc oxide in the second quarter was 145,000 tons, a 12% increase from the previous quarter [1]. - Fundamentals: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. It is expected that the zinc concentrate processing fee in August will continue to increase, weakening cost support. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with a clear trend of increased production. Although downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved due to the recent decline in zinc prices, terminal demand is in the off - season, and enterprise operating rates have declined [1].