美国劳动力市场：脆弱的“紧平衡”

Labor Market Insights - July non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, below the market expectation of 104,000[13] - Revisions for May and June showed a downward adjustment of 125,000 and 133,000 respectively, indicating a weaker labor market than previously thought[13] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July, aligning with market expectations, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%[13] Economic Trends - The labor market is entering a "relaxation" phase, with both supply and demand weakening, leading to a potential rise in the unemployment rate[2] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. increased to 18.3% after August 1, which may have a more significant short-term impact on investment than on consumption[4] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at an annualized rate of 3%, surpassing the market expectation of 2.6%[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of the July employment data, the market has priced in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September[3] - Fed Chair Powell indicated a focus on the unemployment rate rather than non-farm payroll numbers, suggesting that a rate cut may be contingent on unemployment exceeding 4.3%[3] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the S&P 500 index fell by 2.4%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 17 basis points to 4.2%[4] - The dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, and the offshore RMB depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar[4]