地方债周度跟踪：发行继续提速，减国债利差走阔-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased this period but remained at a high level. It is expected that both the issuance and net financing of local government bonds will continue to decline significantly in the next period [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds continued to accelerate this period. The current cumulative issuance progress is faster than that in the same period of 2024 and comparable to that in the same period of 2023 [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from August to September 2025 is 161.71 billion yuan, with new special bonds amounting to 96.43 billion yuan [2]. - The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened this period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased month - on - month. The current profit - hunting market for local government bonds may be approaching the end [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. This period's local government bond issuance volume decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period (2025.7.28 - 2025.8.3) local government bonds issued a total of 337.175 billion yuan (the previous period was 375.755 billion yuan), and the next period (2025.8.4 - 2025.8.10) is expected to issue 165.459 billion yuan. The net financing was 243.062 billion yuan this period (the previous period was 292.39 billion yuan), and the next period is expected to be 82.848 billion yuan [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.39 years, shorter than the 15.17 years of the previous period (2025.7.21 - 2025.7.27) [2][10]. - As of August 1, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 67.2% and 62.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 68.2% and 63.5% [2][18]. - This period, 98.7 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 45.4 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued. As of August 1, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 755.1 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1,881.8 billion yuan, with a issuance progress of 94.1% [2]. 2. This period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, and the weekly turnover rate decreased month - on - month - As of August 1, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 12.41BP and 14.10BP respectively, widening by 5.65BP and 1.35BP compared with July 25, 2025, and were at the 12.80% and 55.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.69%, a month - on - month decrease from 0.74% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Sichuan were better than the national average [2].