华龙期货螺纹周报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the steel industry is ★★ [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price has corrected recently due to the decline in market sentiment, but the correction space is expected to be limited, mainly in a range-bound consolidation [5][35] - It is recommended to wait for the market to correct and then take a bullish stance on dips, paying attention to the support around 3,100 yuan/ton [5][36] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - Futures Price: The螺纹2510 contract fell 3.41% last week and 1.18% on the Friday night session [4] - Spot Price: As of August 1, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,350 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin it was 3,290 yuan/ton, also down 10 yuan/ton [13] - Basis and Spread: No specific data provided Important Market Information - On August 1, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain liquidity, and guide reasonable credit growth [17] - On August 1, the National Development and Reform Commission will speed up the revision of the Price Law and regulate market price order [17] Supply - Side Situation - As of July 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 50.6, down 2.2% month - on - month; the Lange Iron and Steel: Steel Circulation Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.8, up 4.2% month - on - month [24] Demand - Side Situation - No specific demand - side data summary was provided in the text other than the reference to related charts Fundamental Analysis - As of a certain time, the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports in China was 13,657.90 million tons, down 132.48 million tons month - on - month; in 47 ports it was 14,222.01 million tons, down 173.67 million tons month - on - month [34] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, flat month - on - month and up 2.18% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, down 0.57% month - on - month and up 1.37% year - on - year [5][34] - The daily average coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.19, the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.35% to 86.62%, the coke inventory decreased by 13.29 to 626.69, and the available days of coke decreased by 0.28 days to 11.17 days [34] - The steel industry PMI in July 2025 was 50.5%, up 4.6 percentage points month - on - month, ending two consecutive months of decline and returning to the expansion range [5][34] 后市展望 - The steel price is expected to have limited correction space and mainly move in a range - bound consolidation [5][35] Operation Strategy - Wait for the market to correct and then take a bullish stance on dips, paying attention to the support around 3,100 yuan/ton [5][36]