Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the iron ore industry is to expect the market to be volatile with a slight upward bias [2][4][62] Core View of the Report - In July, the iron ore futures market first rose and then fell. After the end - of - month meeting, the market started to price in events such as the military parade, crude steel production cuts, and blast furnace maintenance, leading to an expected decline in hot metal demand. However, considering the potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in hot metal output will not be significant. Under the positive feedback logic, it is favorable for iron ore and negative for coal at the raw material end. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will operate with a slight upward bias and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black commodities. Attention should be paid to the 770 support level for the 09 contract [3][61] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review: Soaring and Then Falling, Basis Stabilizing 1.1 Market Review: High - level Decline and Adjustment - Last Friday, the discounted futures prices of various grades of iron ore at Qingdao Port were: Super Special Powder at 846 yuan/ton (- 14), PB Powder at 813 yuan/ton (- 15), Newman Powder at 801 yuan/ton (- 17), and Carajas Powder at 812 yuan/ton (- 13). The dry - basis tax - included price of Tangshan 66% iron concentrate was 930 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10. The Platts 62% price index was 99.30 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 3.3, and the monthly average was 99.30 US dollars/ton. The 09 contract of iron ore closed at 783 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 19.5 [8] 1.2 Market Review: Strength of Medium - and High - grade Ores - On August 1st, the contract screw - to - ore ratio was 4.09, a decrease of 0.09 from the previous period. The prices of Super Special Powder, PB Powder, and Carajas Powder were 643, 768, and 870 yuan/wet ton respectively. The basis of the PB Powder 09 contract was 30 yuan/ton last Friday, a weekly increase of 4. The 05 - 09 spread was 26 yuan/ton last Friday, a weekly decrease of 4 [17][22] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Increased Imports, Profitable Steel Mills 2.1 Import Volume: Significant Increase - In June, China's total imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 10,594.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 833.49. The cumulative imports were 59,255.10 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Specifically, sintering ore powder imports were 7,504.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 809.70; lump ore imports were 1,787.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120.65; pellet imports were 116.91 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.16; and iron concentrate imports were 1,186.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 [24][28] 2.2 Domestic Supply: Output Decline - In June, the cumulative output of domestic raw ore was 50,859.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. As of August 1st, the daily average output of iron concentrate was 46.30 million tons, a decrease of 1.73 from the previous period. The iron concentrate inventory of mining enterprises was 76.80 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 from the previous period [30][31][32] 2.3 Foreign Supply: Stronger Shipments from Brazil - As of July 25th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,677.8 million tons, an increase of 198.8 from the previous period. Australian shipments were 1,793.5 million tons, an increase of 222.3, while Brazilian shipments were 884.3 million tons, a decrease of 23.5. As of August 1st, the sea freight from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.37 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.05, and from Brazil to Qingdao was 24.01 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.53 [42] 2.4 Ports: Decline in Both Arrival and Out - port Volumes - On July 25th, the arrival volume at 45 major domestic ports was 2,240.5 million tons, a decrease of 130.7 from the previous period. Last week, the number of ships at berth in 47 ports was 96, a decrease of 6. The daily average out - port volume at 45 major domestic ports last week was 302.71 million tons, a decrease of 12.44 [46] 2.5 Inventory: Steel Mills Restocking - Last week, the iron ore inventory at 45 major domestic ports was 13,657.9 million tons, a weekly decrease of 132.48. Among them, coarse powder inventory was 11,017.53 (- 182.86), lump ore inventory was 1,738.26 (+ 34.76), pellet inventory was 386.14 (- 11.15), and iron concentrate inventory was 1,080.08 (- 14.42). Last Friday, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 domestic steel mills was 9,012.09 million tons, a weekly increase of 126.87, and the corresponding daily average iron ore consumption last week was 299.46 million tons/day (- 1.64). The total inventory of the two was 24,669.99 million tons, a decrease of 5.61 [47] 2.6 Steel Enterprises' Demand: Decline in Hot Metal Output - Last week, the profitability rate of 247 domestic steel enterprises was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73%. The daily average hot metal output of 247 domestic steel enterprises last week was 240.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.52. The market price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Jiangyin was 2,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 [56] 3. Investment Strategy: Affected by Production Cuts, Relatively Strong 3.1 Investment Strategy: Volatile Operation - The iron ore futures market in July first rose and then fell. After the end - of - month meeting, the market started to price in events such as the military parade, crude steel production cuts, and blast furnace maintenance, leading to an expected decline in hot metal demand. Considering the potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in hot metal output will not be significant. Under the positive feedback logic, it is favorable for iron ore and negative for coal at the raw material end. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will operate with a slight upward bias and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black commodities. Attention should be paid to the 770 support level for the 09 contract [61]
铁矿石八月报：限产扰动仍在，铁矿相对偏强-20250804
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-08-04 02:58