宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250804

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view on gold is bullish, with a mid - term view of consolidation and an intraday view of slightly bullish. The core logic is that the unexpected US non - farm payrolls data has increased market risk - aversion demand, pushing up gold prices. For copper, the short - term, mid - term and intraday views are all consolidation (slightly bullish intraday), and the recommended strategy is to wait and see, as the cooling of the domestic long - position atmosphere and the rebound of the US dollar index have pressured copper prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Outlook: Short - term: Upward; Mid - term: Consolidation; Intraday: Slightly bullish. The reference view is to be bullish in the short - term [1]. - Core Logic: The unexpected US non - farm payrolls data on Friday night led to a significant rebound in gold prices. Against the background of reduced tariff disturbances, the US inflation data exceeded expectations and non - farm payrolls were disappointing, increasing the expectation of a US economic recession, reducing market risk appetite, causing a significant decline in US stocks, and thus benefiting gold prices. Also, the expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is also positive for gold prices. It is expected that the gold price will move strongly, and attention should be paid to the technical resistance at the upper edge of the Q2 consolidation range [3]. Copper - Price Outlook: Short - term: Consolidation; Mid - term: Consolidation; Intraday: Slightly bullish. The reference view is to wait and see [1]. - Core Logic: Last week, the domestic long - position atmosphere continued to cool, and combined with the rebound of the US dollar index, copper prices were pressured down. On Thursday, the US tariff policy excluded refined copper, causing a sharp drop in New York copper and a rapid narrowing of the spread between COMEX and LME copper, which means that the US is temporarily unable to be self - sufficient in refined copper, which is beneficial for SHFE copper and LME copper. It is the domestic industrial off - season, and the inventory reduction at a low level has slowed down. In the short - term, SHFE copper is at the July low, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the low level [4].