玻璃八月报：玻璃八月报市场情绪降温，尝试短期做空-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the glass industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [2][3][104][105] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the glass futures price fluctuated significantly, rising first and then falling, and basically returned to the starting point at the end of the month. The market sentiment weakened after the macro - meeting, and the market returned to fundamentals. The supply slightly decreased, the national inventory continued to decline mainly due to the positive arbitrage of cash - and - carry traders, and the profits of the three production processes improved. The order situation of small and medium - sized processing plants was still poor, and the market had a pessimistic outlook on the long - term trend of soda ash. In August, it is expected that the inventory reduction speed of enterprises will slow down, and there may be a negative feedback in the market. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 09 contract [2][104] Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: The glass 2509 contract closed at 1102 yuan/ton last Friday, down 260 yuan week - on - week. As of August 1st, the market prices of 5mm float glass were 1240 yuan/ton in North China (down 10 yuan), 1220 yuan/ton in Central China (up 30 yuan), and 1310 yuan/ton in East China (up 30 yuan) [15] - Basis and Spread: As of August 1st, the difference between soda ash and glass futures prices was 154 yuan/ton (up 76 yuan), the basis of the glass 09 contract was 98 yuan/ton (up 260 yuan), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 122 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan) [16] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern - Profit: For the natural - gas production process, the cost was 1595 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), and the gross profit was - 285 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan). For the coal - gas production process, the cost was 1171 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan), and the gross profit was 69 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan). For the petroleum - coke production process, the cost was 1109 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), and the gross profit was 111 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan) [21][25] - Supply: The daily melting volume of glass was 157,755 tons/day (unchanged), and there were 222 production lines in operation. The first - line of Gansu Kaisheng Daming with a daily melting volume of 600 tons was cold - repaired last week [27] - Inventory: As of August 1st, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 5,949.9 million weight - cases (down 239.7 million weight - cases). The inventory in South China was 965.5 million weight - cases (down 60.1 million weight - cases), in Southwest China was 1,133 million weight - cases (down 38.4 million weight - cases), and the inventory in Shahe factories was 160 million weight - cases (up 45 million weight - cases) [41] - Deep - processing: On July 31st, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.9% (down 2.9%), the order days for glass deep - processing at the beginning of August were 9.55 days (up 0.25 days), and the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 80% (down 46%) [43][44] - Demand - Automotive: In June, China's automobile production was 2.794 million vehicles (up 145,000 vehicles month - on - month and 287,000 vehicles year - on - year), and sales were 2.904 million vehicles (up 218,000 vehicles month - on - month and 352,000 vehicles year - on - year). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.111 million vehicles with a penetration rate of 53.3% [53] - Demand - Real Estate: In June, China's real - estate completion area was 41.8147 million square meters (down 2% year - on - year), new construction area was 71.8071 million square meters (down 9% year - on - year), construction area was 83.0189 million square meters (up 5% year - on - year), and commercial housing sales area was 105.354 million square meters (down 7% year - on - year). From July 21st to July 27th, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.61 million square meters (up 17% month - on - month and down 9% year - on - year). The real - estate development investment in June was 1.042416 trillion yuan (down 12% year - on - year) [61] - Import and Export: As of June, China's float glass imports were 281,100 weight - cases (down 4.6% year - on - year), and exports were 1.3961 million weight - cases (up 87.0% year - on - year) [63] - Cost - Soda Ash: As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were 1400 yuan/ton in North China (up 50 yuan), 1375 yuan/ton in East China (up 25 yuan), 1375 yuan/ton in Central China (up 50 yuan), and 1500 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged). The basis of the soda ash 09 contract in Central China was 119 yuan/ton (up 234 yuan). The soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1256 yuan/ton (down 184 yuan) last Friday [68][73] - Cost - Soda Ash Profit: As of last Friday, the ammonia - soda process cost of soda ash enterprises was 1300 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), with a gross profit of 57 yuan/ton (up 92 yuan); the co - production process cost was 1795 yuan/ton (up 93 yuan), with a gross profit of 107 yuan/ton (up 89 yuan) [75][77] - Cost - Soda Ash Inventory: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 699,800 tons (down 24,000 tons week - on - week), including 398,700 tons of heavy soda ash (down 10,200 tons week - on - week) and 301,100 tons of light soda ash (down 13,800 tons week - on - week). The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week were 2790 (up 1835 week - on - week). As of August 1st, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7958 million tons (down 68,800 tons week - on - week) [92] - Cost - Soda Ash Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 418,300 tons (up 9200 tons week - on - week), the soda ash production - sales ratio was 109.83% (up 4.17% week - on - week), and the soda ash inventory days of sample float glass factories in May were 25.8 days [100] 3. Investment Strategy - Main Logic: The glass futures price fluctuated significantly in July. The supply slightly decreased, the inventory decreased due to positive arbitrage, and the profits of the three production processes improved. The order situation of processing plants was poor, and the market was pessimistic about soda ash in the long - term. In August, it is expected that the inventory reduction speed will slow down, and there may be a negative feedback [2][104] - Operation Strategy: Oscillating Weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 09 contract and the price support level at the beginning of last month [3][105]