生猪周报：市场情绪降温盘面有所回调-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase monthly until December, but significant and continuous price increases are unlikely due to sufficient supply. The positive and potentially strengthening fat - standard price difference may support the pig price by reducing the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs. For the LH2509 contract, if there are short positions, it is advisable to consider taking profits and staying on the sidelines for the time being [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures End - 主力合约基差情况: This week, market sentiment cooled, and the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs weakened. On August 1st, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 375 yuan/ton [1][3][4]. - 各合约价格变化情况: The prices of far - month contracts have corrected [6]. - 月间价差变化: The inter - month price spreads are oscillating and adjusting [8][11]. 2. Spot End - 猪价与宰量: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price first declined and then rose [14]. - 区域价差: The regional price differences are relatively reasonable [16]. - 肥标价差: The fat - standard price difference is oscillating and adjusting as a whole. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen seasonally, which may reduce the market's willingness to reduce the weight of pigs or even prompt the market to increase the weight [18]. - 鲜销与毛白价差: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - 相关产品比价与鲜冻价差: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat has weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products is lower than that of fresh products [22]. - 养殖利润: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [24]. - 出栏体重: The average slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether it can reach a level close to that of the same period last year [26]. 3. Capacity End - 能繁母猪存栏量: At the end of June, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The inventory of reproductive sows in relevant samples continued to increase [28]. - 母猪淘汰情况: This week, the price of culled sows weakened. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [30]. - 母猪生产效率与新生健仔数: In June, the number of healthy newborn piglets decreased by 1.26% month - on - month, indicating that the number of slaughtered pigs in December this year will stop increasing and start to decline [32]. - 母猪、仔猪补栏积极性: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight downward trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was relatively stable [34]. 4. Slaughter End - 屠宰量与屠宰利润等: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral to negative [36]. 5. Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].