Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The financial support for the continuous improvement of the economy has increased. China's central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and promote a decline in financial market interest rates and social comprehensive financing costs [2]. - The US labor market has slowed down rapidly, with the July non - farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2%, which may trigger new recession concerns [3]. - The real estate industry policy implementation rhythm is expected to accelerate, and the policy flexibility of first - tier cities and core areas may exceed expectations [29]. - The macro - policy may focus more on monetary policy relaxation in the third quarter, considering the low possibility of short - term fiscal incremental policies [29]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices had a year - on - year quarterly increase of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month [1]. - In June 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, with M1 and M2 showing significant increases compared to the same period last year [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of 2025, including reducing the deposit reserve ratio and lowering policy interest rates [2]. - The US President Trump modified "reciprocal tariffs" for dozens of countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, and postponed the effective date to August 7 [2]. Metals - The price of tungsten has reached a new high due to supply contraction and an increase in long - term contract prices. In the past two weeks, the price of black tungsten concentrate has risen by 7.82% to 193,000 yuan/ton, and the price of ammonium paratungstate has risen by 7.95% to 285,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Three major steel enterprises jointly opposed the speculation of high molybdenum prices, as the profit of the industrial chain is highly concentrated in the mining end [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise the price of coke on July 31, with different price increases for different types of coke [9]. - In July 2025, India's coal production was 46.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16%; sales were 53.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [9]. Energy and Chemicals - China plans to reform the pricing mechanism of provincial natural gas pipelines, transitioning from "one - line, one - price" and "one - enterprise, one - price" to regional pricing or unified provincial pricing [11]. - OPEC+ core members will decide whether to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day crude oil production cut plan in September or take a more cautious approach [12]. Agricultural Products - On August 3, the average price of live pigs was 14.29 yuan/kg, with a daily decline of 0.01 yuan/kg. The price increase at the beginning of the month failed to meet expectations [14]. - On August 1, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.60 yuan/kg, a 1.3% decrease from July 25 [15]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will expire. Last week, the central bank conducted 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan [16]. Important News and Information - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax [17]. - The central bank requires steady and solid progress in the internationalization of the RMB, including expanding the use of RMB in trade and enhancing its financing currency function [19]. Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed narrow - range fluctuations, with treasury bond futures rising and falling unevenly, and the yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market fluctuating within 1 bp [23]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.2106 against the US dollar on August 4, down 176 basis points from the previous trading day [28]. Research Report Highlights - CICC Fixed Income believes that the policy focus will shift from fiscal to monetary policy in the second half of the year, and monetary policy relaxation will help reduce the fiscal interest burden [29]. - Huatai Securities believes that the policy implementation rhythm of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and the policy flexibility of first - tier cities may exceed expectations [29]. 4. Stock Market Important News - The new - share market of the Beijing Stock Exchange continues to be booming. The first - day increase of Dingjia Precision on July 31 was 479.12%, and the funds frozen in the online subscription exceeded 60 billion yuan for the first time [33]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO pricing mechanism has been reformed, with new rules taking effect on August 4, including optimizing the new - share allocation ratio and reducing the public shareholding threshold [34].
宝城期货资讯早班车-20250804
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-04 03:10