Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the roller - coaster market in June due to Middle - East conflicts, oil prices were generally volatile in July. Brent crude oil traded in the range of $65 - 73 per barrel. In the last week of July, influenced by Trump's threat of secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil and the sharp downward revision of non - farm payroll data in the US, the oil price fluctuation increased significantly. Geopolitics and macro - sentiment dominated the oil price movement during the period with less prominent fundamental contradictions [3]. - As global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. China's high crude - oil inventory indicates a disconnection between imports and terminal consumption, which may not be sustainable. With the new supplies from Latin America, the North Sea, etc., entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year. Unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia leading to a notable supply decrease, the center of oil prices will move down [3]. - The short - term oil price will oscillate within a range. If the absolute price returns to a high level, consider short - selling in the medium - term. A Brent crude oil backwardation strategy is recommended [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Price Spread: Geopolitical Concerns and Macro - sentiment Once Again Dominate the Market - In terms of absolute prices, after the June fluctuations, oil prices were volatile in July. Brent traded between $65 - 73 per barrel. In late July, geopolitical and macro - factors increased price volatility. Geopolitics and macro - sentiment dominated the market when fundamentals were less contradictory [10]. - Regarding monthly spreads, the monthly spreads of the three major benchmark crudes remained strong in July, with the near - month premium still very firm. The shape of the forward curve showed a premium structure at the near end and was close to flat at the far end. The monthly spreads of WTI and Brent were weaker than that of Dubai. The short - end structures of CFD and DFL were also relatively firm, indicating good physical demand during the refinery peak season [10]. - For physical discounts, the discounts of North Sea oil varieties were differentiated. The discounts of OseBerg and Johan Sverdrup decreased significantly. The discount of Azerbaijani Azeri crude dropped sharply due to organic chlorine pollution. The discount of West African oil decreased slightly, while the physical discounts of Middle - East oil varieties were firm. The discount of Guyanese crude in Latin America declined from a high level. In North America, the triangular spread of WTI in Cushing, Midland, and Houston narrowed again, indicating that the tight inventory situation in Cushing had not been completely alleviated [10]. - In terms of regional spreads, the Brent - Dubai EFS recently dropped to around $1 per barrel, showing an obvious trend of the East being stronger than the West. The WTI - Brent spread was maintained at around $3.3 per barrel [11]. - Regarding refined - oil spreads, the diesel crack spread and monthly spread declined from high levels. In the short term, factors such as the continuous decline in diesel shipments from the Middle East to Europe, low diesel inventories in the West, and refinery operation issues drove the strong performance of European diesel in June. The east - west diesel spread continued to weaken, promoting more arbitrage shipments from the East to Europe and refineries to switch to diesel production for re - balancing. The diesel contradiction mainly came from the supply and trade sides rather than the demand side [11]. Petroleum Inventory: The Differentiation of Crude - oil Inventories between China and Overseas Continues - According to Kpler's high - frequency inventory data, as of the end of July, the global sea - land crude - oil inventory (excluding China and the US SPR inventory) was about 2.85 billion barrels, which was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. China's on - shore crude - oil inventory continued to increase, with a total of about 1.14 billion barrels (excluding underground SPR). China's high inventory was due to both the active replenishment of strategic reserves to hedge geopolitical risks and the passive inventory build - up caused by the decline in refinery processing volume [22]. - In terms of floating - storage crude - oil, as of the end of July, the global floating - storage crude - oil inventory rose to 89 million barrels, and the Iranian floating - storage crude - oil increased to 48 million barrels. Regarding refined - oil inventories, the global refined - oil inventory increased slightly last week, but the inventory level remained at a five - year low in the same period. Meanwhile, the European diesel inventory continued to decline, and the tight diesel spot situation had not been alleviated [22]. Crude - oil Shipments: Both Shipments and Arrivals Increase Simultaneously - In terms of global shipments, the global crude - oil shipments in July rose to the high level of the same period in the past five years. OPEC's shipments reached 20 million barrels per day but dropped below 17 million barrels per day in the last week of July (mainly due to Saudi Arabia's exports falling below 6 million barrels per day). It is expected that with OPEC's production increase and the decrease in direct - burning power - generation demand for crude oil in the Middle East in summer, OPEC's exports still have room to grow. Non - OPEC shipments reached a high of 21.5 million barrels per day this year. Latin American shipments increased to 5.3 million barrels per day, with the increased supply from Guyana and Brazil offsetting the decreased supply from Mexico and Ecuador. West African shipments were stable at 3.4 million barrels per day, and North African shipments (including transit shipments from Egypt) remained stable at 2.5 million barrels per day. In North America, Canada's crude - oil shipments remained at around 0.8 million barrels per day, and the US shipments remained at a low of 3.1 million barrels per day. The shipments from Russia in the former Soviet Union region dropped to 3.2 million barrels per day, while Kazakhstan's shipments remained at a high of 1.6 million barrels per day. Due to organic chlorine pollution, Azerbaijan's shipments dropped to 0.4 million barrels per day. In the North Sea, Norway's recent oil - field maintenance led to a drop in shipments to 1.5 million barrels per day [24]. - Regarding global arrivals, the recent arrivals rose to a high of 44.2 million barrels per day this year and in the same period of history. The arrivals in Northeast Asia remained at a high of 15.8 million barrels per day, South Asian arrivals increased slightly to 5 million barrels per day, Southeast Asian imports remained strong at 3.6 million barrels per day, the US arrivals dropped to 2.7 million barrels per day, and European arrivals increased significantly recently to 8.9 million barrels per day. As refineries reach their peak operating rates in mid - August and then decline, the arrivals will gradually decrease. Meanwhile, China's high crude - oil imports may reverse in the second half of the year, which will also drag down the arrivals [25][26]. Crude - oil Supply: OPEC Increases Production Cautiously, and Non - OPEC Non - US Production Increases Accelerate - OPEC+'s actual production increase still does not match the quota increase, indicating Saudi Arabia's cautious attitude towards production increase. OPEC's overall released supply is still very restricted. According to OPEC's plan to lift production limits, it will continuously increase production by 0.55 million barrels per day before September to completely cancel the 2.2 million barrels per day production limit. The negotiation between Iraq and Kurdistan on the resumption of oil exports has made some progress, but the Kurdish oil exports have not resumed, and the resumption requires the consent of Turkey [35]. - Recently, the supply situation in Latin America has improved significantly. Brazil's supply has grown strongly supported by the commissioning of four FPSO projects. Guyana is expected to install a new FPSO in the third quarter, one quarter earlier than the market expected. Recently, the two crude - oil pipelines in Ecuador have resumed operation, and Ecuador's crude - oil exports will resume. Argentina's crude - oil supply has continuously reached new highs [35]. - In the US, due to cautious capital expenditure and the slowdown of well - drilling and completion operations, it is expected that the US production will stabilize after reaching 13.5 million barrels per day, and the decline will not be significant. The commissioning of projects in the Gulf of Mexico will partially offset the decline in shale - oil production [35]. Refinery Maintenance and Profits: The Peak of Operating Rates is Approaching - The global refinery shutdown volume continued to decline seasonally. As of the week of July 25, the global shutdown capacity dropped to 5.2 million barrels per day. Refinery units in China, the former Soviet Union, Japan, and Latin America restarted. It is expected that the global refinery operating rate will reach its annual seasonal high in mid - August and then decline, entering the autumn maintenance period from September to October. Meanwhile, as the diesel crack spread declined from a high level, the global refinery profits decreased significantly, especially in the regions east of the Suez Canal [42]. Geopolitics: Trump Threatens Secondary Tariffs on Russian Oil, and India Will Not Abandon Russian - oil Purchases - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine situation, there has been no obvious progress in the cease - fire agreement. The 18th round of EU sanctions has increased the sanctions on Russian oil, including the implementation of a dynamically adjusted price cap on Russian oil and restrictions on third - country refineries from processing Russian oil and re - exporting it to Europe to plug the refining loophole. Trump plans to restore Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, which will help stabilize Venezuela's crude - oil supply. In terms of tariffs, Trump has successively announced trade agreements with various countries, reducing the tariff risk. Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, mainly targeting China, India, and Turkey, aiming to gain more benefits in tariff negotiations. China will ignore Trump's threat of Russian - oil tariffs, and India also said it will continue to purchase Russian crude oil. India currently purchases up to 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil and is the largest buyer of Russian Urals crude oil since the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There is no additional supply in the current market to fill the 2 million barrels per day supply gap of Russian oil [44][47]. Liquidity: Hedge Funds Are Bullish on Diesel, but Positions Are Overcrowded - Recently, in terms of fund positions, there has been a divergence between Brent and WTI. The net long positions of Brent funds have risen to a high level, while the net long positions of WTI funds have decreased significantly. In terms of refined - oil positions, the net long positions of European and US diesel funds are at a high level this year, indicating extremely crowded long positions and a relatively consistent bullish sentiment in the market [50]. Overall Forecast: The Fundamental Situation Will Enter a Turning Point from Strong to Weak in August - As global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. China's high crude - oil inventory indicates a disconnection between imports and terminal consumption, which may not be sustainable. With the new supplies from Latin America, the North Sea, etc., entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year. Unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia leading to a notable supply decrease, the center of oil prices will move down [54].
原油月报：基本面将迎来强弱转换拐点-20250804
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-04 03:26