供应宽松延续价格震荡下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply of urea is expected to remain loose, and the demand is seasonally weak. Under the game between long and short in the market, the short - term price may continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by news, but the upside and downside space are both limited. It is recommended that investors respond cautiously to the current market environment with a band - trading mindset [57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Urea Futures Main Contract Trend: No detailed description of the trend, only the data source is mentioned as Wenhua Finance and Guoxin Futures [7][8]. - Urea Futures Basis Situation: On July 30, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was 28 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from last Wednesday, and at a low level compared with the past five years [11]. 3.2 Urea Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - Urea Operating Rate: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.93%, up 1.45% month - on - month and 5.79% year - on - year, still at a high level in the past five years [16]. - Urea Daily Average Output: The daily average output of urea was 193,500 tons, still in the high - level range of the past five years [17]. - Urea Device Weekly Maintenance Loss: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea devices was 178,200 tons, flat month - on - month and down 3.16% year - on - year [19]. - Domestic Urea Device Planned and Under - construction in 2025: Multiple enterprises in different provinces such as Jiangsu Shuangduo, Wulan Group, etc. have planned production capacities in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of a large amount [20]. - Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 1.09 million tons, flat month - on - month; the weekly output of pipeline - gas - based urea for fertilizers is 300,000 tons, up 3.45% month - on - month. The supply pattern remains loose [22]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Capacity Operation Rate: The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 31.09%, up 6.24% from the previous period and 5.79% year - on - year [26]. - Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - factory Inventory: The in - factory inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 777,200 tons, up 4.73% month - on - month and 18.80% year - on - year [28]. - Melamine Operating Rate: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 61.08%, down 2.31% month - on - month and 8.27% year - on - year [33]. 3.2.3 Inventory Side - Urea Enterprise Inventory and Port Inventory: Urea enterprise inventory is 757,000 tons, up 2.16% month - on - month; port inventory is 565,000 tons, up 27.54% month - on - month [36]. 3.2.4 Cost Side - Urea Production Profit: Currently, the production profit of fixed - bed urea is - 127 yuan/ton, the production profit of entrained - flow bed process is 352 yuan/ton, and the production profit of natural - gas - based urea is - 165 yuan/ton [42]. - Synthetic Ammonia Price: On July 31, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,440 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton from July 24 [46]. - Coal Market Operation: With the restorative rebound of the low - price of anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea devices is getting stronger. The summary price of Yangquan anthracite fines is 770 yuan/ton, flat from the previous period; the summary price of Jincheng anthracite washed small pieces is 900 yuan/ton, flat from the previous period [48]. 3.2.5 Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance data of urea from January 2024 to September 2025, including initial inventory, output, total supply, consumption, export, total demand, ending inventory, supply - demand ratio, and price [52]. 3.3 Future Outlook - Supply Side: The high - supply situation of urea is difficult to change significantly in the short term, and the supply will continue to be loose [57]. - Demand Side: It is currently the traditional off - season for demand. Downstream markets are generally wait - and - see, mainly following rigid demand, and there is no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement [57]. - Inventory Side: The overall inventory pressure still exists. The enterprise inventory is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the port inventory has increased significantly due to the orderly collection of goods for export [57]. - Cost Side: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with changes in demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [57]. - Operation Suggestion: Investors are advised to respond cautiously to the current market environment with a band - trading mindset [57].