Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the construction industry [5]. Core Insights - The construction industry is expected to improve its fundamentals driven by demand-side initiatives and anti-competition measures, with a focus on enhancing the quality of projects and promoting technological innovation [10][18]. - The report highlights that infrastructure investment growth is projected to improve in the second half of the year, supported by accelerated project construction and government bond issuance [2][12]. - The real estate development investment has declined by 11.2% year-on-year, but urban renewal projects may boost demand for construction and building materials [2][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics Analysis - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to stimulate effective investment [16]. - The national composite PMI output index for July was 50.2%, indicating continued economic expansion despite a slight decline [16]. - Construction activity has slowed due to adverse weather conditions, with the business activity index at 50.6% and new orders index at 42.7% [16][18]. Market Performance - The construction industry experienced a decline of 2.41% from July 28 to August 1, underperforming compared to major indices [19]. - The engineering consulting services sector showed better performance with a weekly increase of 0.87% [19]. Key Investment Targets - The report suggests focusing on leading state-owned enterprises in construction, such as China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved operational quality and market conditions [10][12]. - It also recommends attention to companies involved in pre-stressed materials manufacturing and international engineering service providers with strong competitive advantages [10][11]. Company Announcements - Significant contract announcements include China Railway Construction signing contracts worth 1.06 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in overseas contracts [31]. - Other companies, such as Jianghe Group and Anhui Construction, reported substantial new contracts, indicating ongoing demand in the sector [31]. Industry News - Recent meetings have focused on enhancing market regulation to eliminate low-quality competition and promote fair practices within the construction industry [32]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is working to strengthen cooperation with Hong Kong in areas such as construction standards and urban renewal [32].
需求侧发力+反内卷双驱动,建筑行业基本面有望改善
Guotou Securities·2025-08-04 03:32