长江期货双焦八月报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - The coking coal market currently shows characteristics of "ongoing supply disruptions and rigid demand support." The key factors to watch are the actual impact of the over - production inspection by the Energy Bureau on the output in major production areas, changes in imported coal prices, and the transmission effect of coking enterprises' profit repair on the raw material replenishment rhythm. The coke market's fundamentals remain relatively strong, with rigid demand support and transportation disruptions jointly driving up market bullish expectations. Key factors to monitor include the impact of steel mill profit changes on the replenishment rhythm, the continuous impact of extreme weather on transportation, and the transmission effect of futures price fluctuations on traders' behavior. Due to significant disturbances in market news, the volatility risk of coking coal and coke has increased, and it is advisable to maintain a neutral and wait - and - see stance [12][13] Summary by Directory Coal and Coke Investment Strategy - Coking Coal: On the supply side, the over - production inspection by the Energy Bureau is ongoing, some previously over - producing coal mines have reduced production due to policy constraints, and the production recovery rhythm of some mines is slow. In addition, environmental protection control in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia has tightened, making it difficult for open - pit mines to resume production, resulting in a tight supply of resources such as fat coal. On the import side, the auction transaction has improved. In terms of demand, the coking price increase rhythm was postponed due to the weakening of the futures market. Some coking enterprises' losses have expanded due to cost pressure, and their enthusiasm for raw material replenishment is limited. However, steel mill blast furnaces still maintain a certain production intensity, and coking enterprises have many pre - sold orders. Overall, the coking coal price remains stable, and the market trading atmosphere is cautious [12] - Coke: On the supply side, after the fourth round of price increases, the profits of some enterprises have improved, and their production enthusiasm has increased. However, some coking enterprises' production is still restricted by previous losses, environmental protection, and maintenance, and the overall supply increase is limited. On the demand side, steel mill blast furnace production remains high, and the rigid demand for coke is strong. Although the fifth - round price increase process was initially slowed down by the futures market, it picked up later, and the supply - demand tight situation remains unchanged [12] - Operation Strategy: Due to significant disturbances in market news, the volatility risk of coking coal and coke has increased, and it is advisable to maintain a neutral and wait - and - see stance [13] Coking Coal Data Tracking - July Price Operation Logic Review: In early July, the coking coal market was in a tight balance under the game between supply and demand, and the cost support of coking coal gradually emerged. In mid - July, cost pressure drove the price increase of coke, and the coking coal market differentiation intensified. In late July, there were frequent news disturbances in the coking coal market, and the strong cost supported the coke price [19] - Price Performance: Domestic coking coal prices in major production areas have stabilized. The port pick - up prices of Australian, Russian, and Mongolian coking coal have decreased. The coking coal futures closing price has shown a volatile trend [21] - Price Difference: The spot price difference between Shanxi coking coal and Mongolian coking coal from Ganqimaodu has widened significantly. The futures price difference and the basis have also shown a widening trend [24] - Production: The production recovery rhythm of coal mines is slow. The daily average output of 110 coal washing plants has decreased slightly, and the monthly total supply of coking coal has increased [28][29] - Profit: The cost of coking coal has increased significantly, but coking enterprises still face losses. The average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises is - 45 yuan/ton [33] - Inventory: The overall coking coal inventory has stabilized, and the inventory pressure of upstream coal mines has been significantly reduced [35] Coke Data Tracking - Price Increase: The spot prices of coke in various regions have increased, and the futures closing price has shown a volatile trend [40][42] - Price Difference and Basis: The price difference between export coke and domestic coke has increased, and the basis of coke has converged [44][46] - Downstream Demand: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills has fluctuated slightly, and the profit of steel mills has increased [50][53] - Inventory: The overall coke inventory has continued to decline, with the inventory of coking plants and steel mills decreasing and the port inventory increasing [55][56]