液化石油气(LPG)投资周报:8月CP官价下跌出台,液化气价格弱势震荡-20250804
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-08-04 04:02
- Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the LPG market is bearish [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The August CP official price has decreased, and the LPG price is fluctuating weakly. The current market has a large number of new warehouse receipts. The reverse arbitrage logic for the PG09 delivery month may be repeated, but there are still uncertainties in the macro - aspect. Due to the suppression of the August CP price, the current spread is in a volatile window. It is recommended that investors mainly stay on the sidelines in the LPG market [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated within the range of 3990 - 4100 yuan/ton. The rise in international crude oil prices briefly boosted the market, but the negative factors were concentrated in the domestic and international spot markets. The international LPG price fluctuated slightly, the domestic chemical demand fluctuated slightly, the combustion demand was weak, and the downstream purchased at low prices. The increase in imported shipments put pressure on the market, and the domestic spot price fluctuated downward [7]. 3.2 LPG Futures Price, Inter - month Spread, and Cross - month Spread Overview - As of August 2, 2025, the prices of different LPG contracts (PG01 - PG12) and their inter - month and cross - month spreads had different changes compared with the previous week and month. For example, the PG09 - PG10 spread was - 439 yuan/ton, with a 4.28% increase compared with the previous week and a 12.28% increase compared with the previous month [10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 52.65 tons, including 20.98 tons of civil LPG, 20.30 tons of industrial LPG, and 17.74 tons of ether - post C4. The arrival volume of LPG was 65 tons. Two Shandong refineries resumed operation last week, increasing the supply. This week, one enterprise in Shandong is under maintenance, one enterprise in the Northwest has started its device, and some enterprises have increased their device loads. It is expected that the domestic commodity volume may continue to grow [5]. 3.3.2 Demand - The combustion demand remains weak, and it is difficult to improve significantly as it is the traditional off - season, and the downstream has little procurement demand, mainly replenishing as needed. In the olefin deep - processing sector, the oil product market performed poorly, the inventory pressure of domestic deep - processing enterprises increased, which restricted the performance of products such as isooctane and MTBE, and weakened the demand for ether - post C4. This impact is expected to continue in August. In the alkane deep - processing sector, the concentrated restart of PDH maintenance has increased the operating rate, but the demand for propylene in the intermediate link and PP at the terminal is average in the off - season, the fundamentals are loose, and the profits of other downstream sectors have also suffered varying degrees of losses, so the C3 chain remains bearish [5]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Last week, the LPG inventory in refineries was 18.08 tons, and the port inventory was 313.44 tons. This week, the LPG inventories of enterprises in various regions of the country remained stable overall. Only the inventory in Shandong increased slightly due to the increase in supply, while the inventory in East China decreased due to the boost of Fujian resources going to sea. The number of arriving ships at ports increased this period. Only in East China were the arriving ships affected by the typhoon, and the imported resources were relatively sufficient. In terms of demand, the chemical demand decreased slightly this period, and the combustion demand was tepid. The overall demand decreased slightly. With the high arrival volume, the port inventory showed an upward trend this period [5]. 3.3.4 Basis, Position - The weekly average basis was 72.63 yuan/ton in East China, 54.84 yuan/ton in South China, and 46.56 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 9759, an increase of 45. The lowest deliverable area was East China [5]. 3.3.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 566.00%, 404.40%, and 450.00% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 431 yuan/ton, - 333 yuan/ton, and 42.00 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.3.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 72.63, and the spread between the first and second - month contracts of PG was - 4.81 yuan/ton. The spot price has not yet bottomed out, the basis level is high, and there is still room for the absolute price to fall [5]. 3.3.7 Other - The fundamentals of crude oil remain loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and the international crude oil price is fluctuating downward. The market's bullish sentiment on the "anti - involution" policy has weakened, and the premium of the coal - chemical and new - energy chains has been given back. On July 31, Trump signed an executive order to impose "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple countries and regions, but the market generally believes that Sino - US tariffs may ease [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, pay attention to the PG9 - 10 reverse arbitrage [5].