棉花期货8月报告：快速修正有望企稳，棉价仍存利多支撑-20250804

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4]. - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Weather impact is limited, and there is an expectation of a bumper cotton harvest - According to a survey in June by the International Cotton Market Monitoring System, the weather in major cotton - producing areas is favorable for cotton budding and boll - setting, with relatively few disasters. It is estimated that the new cotton yield per mu in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The national actual sown area of cotton in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [16]. (2) Downstream consumption is stable, and attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations - From January to June, the cumulative export value of clothing and clothing accessories in China was 73.466 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. The cumulative export of textile yarns, fabrics and products from January to June was 70.531 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing in China was 534.13 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.59%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles in China was 743.59 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.62%. As of August 12, the deadline for the postponement of Sino - US tariffs is approaching. Currently, Sino - US negotiations are centered around further delaying tariffs. It is expected that tariffs will most likely be postponed, but there is still a long way to go before a framework agreement is reached. If there is no progress, market sentiment will be bearish [17]. 3. Future Outlook - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22].