热点追踪 （2025年10月9日） 研究咨询部 每日涨跌幅及资金变化 棉纱 沪锡 国际铜 棕榈油 对二甲苯苹果 沪镍 尿素 烧碱 玻璃 硅铁 锰硅 沪铝中证菜油500期货 沪铜 甲醇 花生 纤维板 LPG 沪深300期货 聚丙烯 PVC 乙二醇 PTA 线材短纤郑棉 上证50红枣期货20号胶 原油纯碱 纸浆 粳米 豆一丁二烯橡胶 焦煤 沪金 生猪 塑料 玉米工业硅 苯乙烯 氧化铝 10螺纹钢 碳酸锂 年期国债期货 热轧卷板 30 焦炭中证年期国债期货 1000 豆二铁矿石沪铅期货 沪银 豆油 玉米淀粉 2年期国债期货 菜粕 橡胶 沥青 集运指数 5年期国债期货 豆粕(欧线不锈钢 白糖) 鸡蛋 低硫燃料油 沪锌 燃油 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 涨跌幅（%） 品种每日涨跌幅及资金变化 期货风险莫测，务请谨慎从事 资 金 流 向 （ % ） 每日资金变化 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 棉纱 沪锡 国际铜 棕榈油 对二甲苯 沪镍 苹果 玻璃 烧碱 尿素 锰硅 沪铜 中证500期货 沪铝 硅铁 菜油 甲醇 纤 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Guodu Outlook" and dated September 25, 2025, from the Research and Consulting Department [2] Group 2: Indexes - The report mentions the Wenhua Commodity Index, Industrial Products Index, and Agricultural Products Index [3][5][7] Group 3: Variety Trends and Signals Part 1 - Gold shows an upward daily trend and a volatile hourly trend, with support at 760 and pressure at 880, and the operation suggestion is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 785 [10] - Silver has an upward daily trend and a volatile hourly trend, with support at 9200 and pressure at 10700, and the operation suggestion is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 9430 [10] - Copper has an upward daily and hourly trend, with support at 79300 and pressure at 83000, and the operation suggestion is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 79300 [10] - Other varieties such as螺纹, 热卷, 原油 etc. mostly show volatile trends, and the operation suggestions are mainly to wait and see [10] Part 2 - PVC shows a volatile daily and hourly trend, with support at 4740 and pressure at 5080, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [12] - Corn has a downward daily trend and a volatile hourly trend, with support at 2100 and pressure at 2250, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [12] - Apple has an upward daily and hourly trend, with support at 7700 and pressure at 8700, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [12] -郑油 shows a volatile trend, and the operation suggestion is to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 9640 [12]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a hot - tracking on September 18, 2025, from the Research and Consulting Department [2] Group 2: Variety Lists - The varieties involved include sugar, methanol, butadiene rubber, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Futures, etc [5] Group 3: Daily Fluctuation and Fund - related Information - The report shows the daily price fluctuations, fund flow directions, fund changes, trading volume changes of various futures varieties [5][6][8] - The top five varieties with daily fund inflows are sugar, methanol, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Futures, butadiene rubber, and rubber; the top five varieties with daily fund outflows are Shanghai Aluminum, eggs, crude oil, Shanghai Copper, and cotton yarn [11] Group 4: Position - related Information - The report presents the position amount proportion of various futures varieties, such as 11% for CSI 500 Futures, 17% for CSI 1000 Futures, and 12% for Shanghai Gold [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In July, the prices of iron ore, rebar, and hot-rolled coils in the black metal futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The market is currently in a policy vacuum period, and the weak reality dominates. Iron ore is in a rebalancing stage of "expected supply increase + collapsing demand reality", rebar has entered the initial stage of negative feedback from "demand collapse" to "passive inventory accumulation", and hot-rolled coils have a stronger fundamentals than building materials, but downstream sentiment is cautious [1][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Iron Ore**: In July, the futures price of iron ore first rose and then fell. The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 779.0 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 63.5 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 8.87%. Overseas macroscopically, the number of non-farm payrolls in the US in July increased by 73,000, the lowest in 9 months; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 26 was 218,000, lower than expected. China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden and reached an important consensus to suspend the tariff extension for 90 days [1][12]. - **Rebar**: In July, the futures price of rebar first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,205 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 208 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 6.94%. Domestically, an important meeting at the end of the month set the tone for the economic work in the second half of the year, and macro policies continued to exert force and increase strength in a timely manner. The GDP rankings of 31 provinces in the first half of the year were released. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that it would regulate the disorderly competition of enterprises and carry out a solid campaign to clean up and rectify market access barriers [1][12]. - **Hot-Rolled Coils**: In July, the futures price of hot-rolled coils first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract of hot-rolled coils closed at 3,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 267 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 8.55%. Industrially, the manufacturing PMI in China in July was 49.3%, and the overall output of the economy maintained an expansion. The profit of the steel industry in the first half of the year increased by 13.7 times [1][12]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Iron Ore** - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume continued to rise to 3,200.9 tons, a week-on-week increase of 92 tons, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 382 tons this year; the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports continued to decline to 2,319.7 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 192 tons [2][16]. - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills continued to decrease. The daily average molten iron output was 240.71 tons/day, a decrease of 1.5 tons/day compared with last week, an increase of 1.98 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of 4.09 tons/day year-on-year [2][16]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 174 tons week-on-week, 1,388 tons less than at the beginning of the year, and 1,412 tons lower than the inventory of the same period last year. It is predicted that the port inventory may decrease slightly next period [2][17]. - **Rebar** - **Supply**: The supply of five major steel products this week was 867.42 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.45 tons and an increase rate of 0.1%. Except for hot-rolled and cold-rolled products, the output decreased week-on-week, mainly due to short-term maintenance of individual steel mills and molten iron transfer. The total inventory was 1,351.89 tons, a week-on-week increase of 15.39 tons and an increase rate of 1.15% [2][22]. - **Demand**: The weekly consumption of the five major products this week was 852.03 tons, a decrease of 1.9%; among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 7.1% week-on-week, and the consumption of plates increased by 4.2% week-on-week, reflecting the seasonal impact of the off-season [2][22]. - **Hot-Rolled Coils** - **Supply**: Among 37 hot-rolled coil production enterprises with a total of 64 production lines, 52 were actually in operation, with an overall operating rate of 81.25%, a week-on-week increase of 1.56%; the capacity utilization rate of steel mills this week was 82.47%, a week-on-week increase of 1.35%; there was no new blast furnace or production line maintenance; the average daily output affected by unsaturated production was 7.20 tons, unchanged week-on-week; the actual output of steel mills this week was 322.79 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.30 tons [3][26]. - **Demand**: The in-plant inventory of steel mills was 79.30 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.30 tons. The total volume of specific hot-rolled commercial coils was about 210.84 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.31 tons; the total volume of internal supply materials was about 111.95 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.01 tons [26]. - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar (HC - RB) has expanded to about 200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to intervene to narrow the spread by shorting hot-rolled coils and going long on rebar, with a target of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [6][29][32]. 3. Market Outlook - **Iron Ore**: In July, the iron ore price showed a significant rebound and then declined at the end of the month. Fundamentally, there is a coexistence of rising shipments and falling arrivals on the supply side, and there is great pressure on future arrivals; on the demand side, the molten iron output is at a high level and shows signs of decline, and the drag from the terminal is becoming more obvious; on the inventory side, there is a divergence between the inventory accumulation of the five major steel products at the terminal and the de - stocking at the port, and the subsequent demand pressure may be transmitted to the middle and upper reaches. It is recommended that spot enterprises lock in profits at high prices; for short - term trading, if the price rebounds above 800 yuan, short - sell at high prices and set a stop - loss at 810 yuan; since there are no major meetings in August and the industrial pricing power is recovering, it is recommended to arrange medium - and long - term positions after September, and pay attention to the inflection point of port inventory accumulation and the signal of production reduction when the molten iron output falls below 2.4 million tons [5][31]. - **Rebar**: In July, the rebar price showed a significant rebound. At the end of the month, the fundamentals deteriorated, with an increase in supply, a decrease in demand, and inventory accumulation of the five major steel products, indicating the pressure of off - season demand. The steel market has entered the initial stage of negative feedback from "demand collapse" to "passive inventory accumulation". It is recommended to continue to focus on short - term "short - selling on rebounds" for the rebar 2510 contract, and pay attention to the news of environmental protection restrictions in the north and the implementation of capacity policies for medium - and long - term trading [5][31][32]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: In July, the hot - rolled coil price showed a significant rebound. Fundamentally, the fundamentals of plates are stronger than those of building materials. This week, the in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, mainly concentrated in the East China region. The downstream is in a wait - and - see mood, and orders have decreased compared with last week, with both production and inventory increasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to repair the spread between building materials and plates. Since the spread (HC - RB) has expanded to about 200 yuan/ton, short hot - rolled coils and go long on rebar, with a target of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [6][32].

Report Overview - The report is a monthly report on soybean futures, focusing on the market trends, fundamental analysis, and future outlook of soybeans in July 2025 [3][9]. Market Trends Domestic Market - In July, the domestic soybean meal futures (Lianbo) showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The main 09 contract closed up 1.32% for the month [3][9]. International Market - The external CBOT soybean futures showed a weak trend, closing down 3.63% in July. The favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas and the promising prospect of a bumper harvest were the main reasons for the pressure on both domestic and international markets [3][9]. Differentiation - Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, the domestic and international markets showed differentiation, with the domestic Lianbo being more resilient than the external US soybeans [3][9]. Fundamental Analysis Global Situation - In the 25/26 season, US soybeans are in the growing stage. The planting progress is relatively fast, and there are currently no opportunities for weather - related speculation. As of the week of July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, compared with 67% in the same period last year, and the currently predicted yield of 52.5 bushels per acre is the highest in history [11]. - According to USDA planting area data, the planting area this year is 83.4 million acres, a 4% decrease from 87.05 million acres last year. Due to the reduction in the planting area, the USDA predicts that the US soybean production this year may decrease by 860,000 tons year - on - year [11]. - The USDA's adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit this year is expected to start from the August supply - demand report. Weather is the main factor affecting the yield. Currently in the weather - speculation window period, the rainfall in the growing areas may decrease in the next two weeks, so continuous tracking of the weather changes in the growing areas is needed [11]. Chinese Market - From January to June 2025, the cumulative arrival of imported soybeans in China was 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase compared with the same period last year. Due to the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year, the soybean imports in May and June increased significantly. According to Mysteel data, the expected arrival of soybeans in China in August and September is 10.6925 million tons and 7.6 million tons respectively, and the overall supply is still abundant [2][15]. - On the demand side, as of August 1, the inventory days of soybean meal in downstream feed enterprises were 8.05 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period. The operating rate of domestic oil mills remained at a high level, the inventory pressure continued to increase, and oil mills generally urged customers to pick up goods. However, the downstream demand has slightly improved, the amount of soybean meal used by feed enterprises has increased moderately, the inventory digestion has accelerated, and the inventory shows a downward trend [2][15]. Future Outlook - Currently, the domestic spot market is still digesting the pressure of the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year, while the futures market mainly trades US soybeans. This year, the US soybean planting progress is fast, and there are no opportunities for weather - related speculation for now. The latest good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 70%, compared with 68% in the same period last year. At present, a bumper harvest of US soybeans is expected, but due to tariff policies, the uncertainty of importing US soybeans still exists [2][19]. - Under the pressure of global supply abundance, the CBOT soybean futures fell below the 1000 mark last month. Considering cost support, it is expected that there may still be fluctuations around the integer mark in the short term. The domestic Lianbo is relatively more resilient than the external market and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be focused on the guidance of the USDA's August forecast data on the US soybean yield per unit [2][19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4]. - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Weather impact is limited, and there is an expectation of a bumper cotton harvest - According to a survey in June by the International Cotton Market Monitoring System, the weather in major cotton - producing areas is favorable for cotton budding and boll - setting, with relatively few disasters. It is estimated that the new cotton yield per mu in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The national actual sown area of cotton in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [16]. (2) Downstream consumption is stable, and attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations - From January to June, the cumulative export value of clothing and clothing accessories in China was 73.466 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. The cumulative export of textile yarns, fabrics and products from January to June was 70.531 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing in China was 534.13 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.59%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles in China was 743.59 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.62%. As of August 12, the deadline for the postponement of Sino - US tariffs is approaching. Currently, Sino - US negotiations are centered around further delaying tariffs. It is expected that tariffs will most likely be postponed, but there is still a long way to go before a framework agreement is reached. If there is no progress, market sentiment will be bearish [17]. 3. Future Outlook - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July, the rubber futures price rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Shanghai rubber closed at 14,560 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative increase of 575 yuan/ton, a rise of 4.11%. The INE 20 - rubber contract closed at 12,275 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative increase of 85 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.70% [1]. - The supply - demand contradiction of rubber is not significant, maintaining a loose supply - demand situation, but the phased supply - demand has improved. The phased bottom of rubber prices may have emerged. Long positions can be opportunistically arranged around the 01 contract of 14,000 - 15,000 [1][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In March, the rubber futures price showed a downward trend. As of March 28, the main contract of Shanghai rubber closed at 16,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative decrease of 1,010 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.70%. The INE 20 - rubber contract closed at 14,430 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative decrease of 985 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.39% [6]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) August is a high - incidence period for typhoons, pay attention to phased weather disturbances - In June, the supply of major Southeast Asian producing countries increased. From January to June, ANRPC had a year - on - year production increase of 4.6%. In July, there was more local rainfall in Thailand and frequent rainfall in Yunnan and Hainan of China, resulting in a phased reduction in supply. August is still a typhoon - prone period, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on phased rubber tapping [1][21]. - In June, Thailand's natural rubber production was 272,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99%; Indonesia's production was 200,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77%; Malaysia's production was 22,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.11%; Vietnam's production was 75,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67%. In June, ANRPC's total production was 862,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.94%. From January to June, ANRPC's total production was 3.8277 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.60% [8][9]. (2) Tire operating rate has recovered to a high level - After the concentrated maintenance of tire enterprises around May Day, the current operation has recovered to a high level. On July 31, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 74.45%, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 61.08% [11][12]. (3) In June, tire exports decreased year - on - year, while automobile production and sales, and heavy - truck sales increased year - on - year - In June 2025, China's automobile tire exports were 60.31 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.33%. From January to June, the cumulative exports of new pneumatic tires were 285.57 million pieces, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.98% [13]. - In June, automobile sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.83%, and heavy - truck sales were 97,900 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 37.14% [15][20]. 3. Future Outlook - The supply - demand contradiction of rubber is not large, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. However, the phased supply - demand has improved. The phased bottom of rubber prices may have emerged. Long positions can be opportunistically arranged around the 01 contract of 14,000 - 15,000 [1][21].

Report Information - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [2] - Report Department: Research and Consulting Department [2] - Producer: Hao Xutong [17] - Investment Consulting Qualification: Z0013677 [17] Core Data Daily Price Change and Fund Flow - Multiple futures products are listed, including lithium carbonate, low-sulfur fuel oil, crude oil, etc., with their daily price changes, fund flow percentages, trading volume changes, and fund inflow rankings presented [5][8][10][12] Position Value Proportion - The position value proportions of various futures products are provided, such as lithium carbonate (1%), low-sulfur fuel oil (0%), crude oil (1%), etc. [15] Specific Content Summary Daily Price Change - Multiple futures products' price changes are presented on a chart, with the price change range from -15% to 15% [5] Daily Fund Flow - The fund flow percentages of various futures products are shown, with the range from -15% to 15%. The top five products with fund inflow are lithium carbonate, low-sulfur fuel oil, crude oil, Shanghai silver, and industrial silicon; the top five products with fund outflow are Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures, ferrosilicon, Shanghai aluminum, CSI 1000 Index Futures, and apples [8][12] Daily Trading Volume Change - The trading volume change percentages of various futures products are presented, with the range from -100% to 250% [10] Position Value Proportion - The position value proportions of various futures products are listed, with the highest being Shanghai gold at 12%, followed by CSI 1000 Index Futures at 13%, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Futures at 10% [15]