1. Report Core Information - The report is a hot - spot tracking on March 24, 2026, from the Research and Consulting Department [2] 2. Daily Data Analysis 2.1 Daily Price Changes and Fund Flows - The report shows the daily price changes and fund flows of various futures, including LPG, plastics, fiberboard, coking coal, etc. [5][8][10] 2.2 Fund Changes - The fund changes of multiple futures are presented, with the range of change percentage from - 20% to 25% [8] 2.3 Volume Changes - The daily volume changes of various futures are shown, with the volume change percentage ranging from - 100% to 400% [10] 2.4 Fund Inflow Ranking - The top five futures in daily fund inflow are LPG, plastic, fiberboard, coking coal, and polypropylene, while the top five in daily fund outflow are styrene, apple, pulp, caustic soda, and container shipping on the European line [12] 2.5 Position Value Proportion - The position value proportion of different futures is provided. For example, the proportion of CSI 1000 futures is 14%, CSI 500 futures is 10%, Shanghai Gold is 11%, etc. [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The performance of raw materials in March may be stronger than that of finished products [1] - The iron ore market will enter the overlapping stage of "Two Sessions policy implementation period" and "demand verification period" in March. It is recommended to adopt a short - term bullish - biased and volatile approach, and beware of the callback risk after the policy expectations are fulfilled [5] - The rebar market will enter the "key observation period after the Lantern Festival" in March. It is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish, with limited downside space. It is advisable to take a short - term bearish - biased and volatile approach, not short - sell, and pay attention to the phased rebound opportunities brought by the resumption of work [5] - The hot - rolled coil market should be treated with a short - term volatile approach. Attention should be paid to the demand verification opportunities after the Lantern Festival and the resumption rhythm of steel mills after maintenance [6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Iron ore: Last week, the iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly. The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 750.5 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.5 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 0.60%. Overseas macro factors include the joint strike on Iran by the US and Israel, the potential new round of tariffs by the US government, and the slightly lower - than - expected initial jobless claims in the US [1][12] - Rebar: Last week, the rebar futures price fluctuated strongly. The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 12 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 0.39%. Domestic macro factors include more proactive macro - policies, the visit of the German Chancellor to China, and the reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business by the central bank [1][12] - Hot - rolled coil: Last week, the hot - rolled coil futures price fluctuated weakly. The main 2605 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3215 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 7 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.22%. In the industry, China and South Korea reached a price commitment agreement in the hot - rolled coil anti - dumping case, and South Korea implemented a quota system for Chinese hot - rolled coils [1][12] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Ore - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume rebounded to 3320.9 tons week - on - week, an increase of 631 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased slightly to 2321.1 tons, a decrease of 175 tons week - on - week. The cumulative arrival volume at 47 ports this year increased by 2697 tons year - on - year [2][16] - Demand: The daily average iron - water output of 247 sample steel mills was 233.28 tons/day, an increase of 2.8 tons/day compared with last week, 5.2 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and 5.34 tons/day year - on - year [2][16] - Inventory: The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 17891.3 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 159 tons, an increase of 1170 tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 2135 tons higher than the same period last year [2][17] 3.2.2 Rebar - Supply: The supply of five major steel products was 796.77 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.98 tons and a decline rate of 1%. The total inventory of five major steel products was 1846.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 134.27 tons and an increase rate of 7.8% [2][21] - Demand: The weekly consumption of five major steel products was 564.64 tons, a decrease of 10.9%. The consumption of building materials decreased by 47.6% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.3% week - on - week [2][21] 3.2.3 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply: Among 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises with a total of 64 production lines, 50 were actually in operation, with an overall operating rate of 78.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56%. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills was 79.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%. The daily average production affected by production line maintenance was 3.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.93 tons. The daily average production affected by under - production was 1.10 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.36 tons. The actual output of steel mills was 309.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20 tons [3][24] - Demand: The in - plant inventory of steel mills was 94.78 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.40 tons. The total volume of hot - rolled commercial coils was about 211.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 tons. The total internal supply volume was about 98.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 tons [24] 3.2.4 Arbitrage Opportunities - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar (HC - RB) has expanded to about 200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short hot - rolled coil and long rebar, with a target spread of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [28] 3.3 Future Outlook - Iron ore: The iron ore price fluctuated strongly last week. Although the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, high inventory and slow demand growth pose constraints. In March, the market will enter the overlapping stage of policy implementation and demand verification. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish - biased and volatile approach, pay attention to rebound opportunities driven by policy expectations, and beware of callback risks [5][34] - Rebar: The rebar price fluctuated strongly last week. Demand has started slowly, but inventory pressure is still accumulating. In March, the market will enter the key observation period after the Lantern Festival. It is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish, with limited downside space. It is advisable to take a short - term bearish - biased and volatile approach, not short - sell, and pay attention to phased rebound opportunities [5][34] - Hot - rolled coil: The hot - rolled coil price fluctuated weakly last week. Steel mill maintenance has increased, but production is resilient. Demand start is lagging, and the in - plant inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended to take a short - term volatile approach, pay attention to demand verification opportunities after the Lantern Festival, and track the resumption rhythm of steel mills after maintenance [6][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The increase in global soybean production is the main factor putting pressure on the upward movement of the futures market. However, considering that the price of protein meal is at a relatively low level, the short - term futures market for meal may remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the USDA planting intention report at the end of the month [2][19] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In February, both the domestic and foreign futures markets showed a strong upward trend, with the foreign - market US soybean performing stronger than the domestic market. By the end of the month, the May contract of Dalian soybean meal closed at 2,833 yuan/ton, up 2.39% for the month, and the May contract of CBOT soybeans closed at 1,170 cents per bushel, up 8.61% for the month [3][9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The USDA February report made limited adjustments. The 2026/27 US soybean planting will start in May this year, and the planting area is expected to rebound. The February forum outlook estimated that the US soybean planting area in 2026 will be 85 million acres, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [3][11] - **South American Soybeans**: Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting stage. The USDA February report predicted that the Brazilian soybean output will reach a record 180 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5 million tons. As of February 21, 2026, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 32.3%, lower than 36.4% in the same period last year, and the weather in the next two weeks is favorable for the harvest. The USDA February report predicted that the Argentine soybean output will remain at 48.5 million tons. In the next two weeks, the产区 will still be hot and dry, and there is a possibility of output reduction, but South America as a whole will still have a bumper harvest [3][11] - **China**: In 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 111.833 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7882 million tons, an increase of 6.46%. Mysteel data shows that the estimated soybean imports in China from February to April are 5.005 million, 4.8 million, and 9.5 million tons respectively. Currently, the overall supply is expected to be loose, and the inventories of imported soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills are at a high level compared to the same period in history. As of February 27, the inventory days of soybean meal in downstream feed enterprises were 9.89 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7 days. Last week, the operation of domestic oil mills gradually resumed, but the downstream aquaculture was in a loss, and the replenishment sentiment was average, mainly maintaining rigid demand purchases. Currently, the physical inventory level of downstream enterprises is basically the same as that of the same period last year [2][16] 3.3 Market Outlook - Currently, Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting stage, and the USDA February report raised the Brazilian soybean output to 180 million tons, which is expected to set a new record. The Argentine output is predicted to remain at 48.5 million tons, and South America as a whole will have a bumper harvest. US soybeans will start planting in the second quarter of this year, and the USDA forum outlook estimated that the US soybean planting area in 2026 will be 85 million acres, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. In China, the cumulative soybean imports increased last year, and the current supply is loose. The inventories of imported soybeans and soybean meal in domestic oil mills are at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. Overall, the increase in global soybean production is the main factor putting pressure on the upward movement of the futures market, but considering that the price of protein meal is at a relatively low level, the short - term futures market for meal may remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the USDA planting intention report at the end of the month [2][19]

Report Information - Report Date: January 30, 2026 [2] - Research Department: Research and Consulting Department - Producer: Hao Xutong - Investment Consulting Qualification: Z0013677 Report Core Points Daily Fluctuation, Fund Flow, and Volume Change - The report presents the daily price changes, fund flow percentages, and trading volume changes of various futures varieties including粳米, international copper, PVC, etc [5][7][9] Daily Fund Inflow and Outflow Ranking - The top five futures varieties with daily fund inflow are粳米, international copper, PVC, paper pulp, and wire rod; the top five with daily fund outflow are cotton yarn, lithium carbonate, Shanghai tin, Shanghai gold, and caustic soda [11] Position Value Proportion - The position value proportions of different futures varieties vary, with CSI 1000 futures at 14%, CSI 500 futures at 12%, Shanghai gold at 12%, and Shanghai copper at 7% [14]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a Hotspot Tracking released on January 26, 2026, by the Research and Consulting Department [2] Group 2: Daily Fluctuations and Capital Changes - The report shows daily price changes, capital flow, and trading volume changes for various futures products, including ethylene glycol, fuel oil, butadiene rubber, crude oil, LPG, and many others [5][8][10] Group 3: Capital Flow Ranking - The top five futures products with the highest daily capital inflow are ethylene glycol, fuel oil, butadiene rubber, crude oil, and LPG [12] - The top five futures products with the highest daily capital outflow are international copper, cotton yarn, lithium carbonate, and alumina [12] Group 4: Position Value Proportion - The report presents the position value proportion of various futures products, such as 9% for Shanghai silver, 10% for CSI 300 futures, 13% for Shanghai gold, and 12% for CSI 500 futures [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hotspot Tracking - The report is a hotspot tracking on January 20, 2026, from the Research and Consulting Department [2] Daily Price Changes, Fund Flows, and Volume Changes - Lists various futures varieties including cotton yarn, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., and shows their daily price changes, fund flows, and volume changes [5][8][10] Daily Fund Inflow Ranking - The top five futures with daily fund inflows are cotton yarn, PTA, ethylene glycol, Shanghai tin, and p - xylene; the top five with daily fund outflows are lithium carbonate, LPG, live pigs, wire rods, and iron ore [12] Position Value Proportion - Displays the position value proportion of different futures varieties, such as 13% for CSI 500 futures, 13% for Shanghai gold, and 15% for CSI 1000 futures [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The steel industry is currently in the depression phase of the long - term (Kondratieff) cycle, the downward bottom - seeking phase of the medium - term (Juglar, real estate) cycle, and the weak recovery and transition phase of the short - term (inventory) cycle. The expected "active restocking cycle" led by demand recovery has not occurred, and the cycle switch has been further postponed [2][29]. - The steel export needs a mindset upgrade from "tonnage" to "grade". When "Chinese steel" becomes a synonym for certain quality, innovation, or sustainability in the global market, its export will truly enter the deep - blue sea [2][63]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - **Iron Ore**: In 2025, the iron ore market had a complex trend contrary to the pessimistic predictions at the beginning of the year. The price showed a narrow - range fluctuation, with a "U - shaped" annual price movement. The main contract fluctuated in the range of [689.0, 838.5], with an amplitude of 149.5 points (19.32%), and the year - end price was basically the same as the beginning of the year. The supply - demand structure was moving towards a trend of loosening. The price first rose and then fell in the first half of the year, and rebounded and then fluctuated in the second half [1][11][13]. - **Steel**: Affected by weak terminal demand, steel prices continued to decline. Taking rebar as an example, the main contract fluctuated in the range of [2928, 3382], with an amplitude of 454 points (14.38%) and a decline of 184 points (- 5.57%). Through self - disciplined production control and exports by steel mills, the industry achieved a difficult "supply - demand re - balance" and a short - term reverse profit repair [1][11][14]. - **Terminal Demand**: In 2025, the real estate market entered a deep - adjustment period of accelerated decline in investment and sales. Infrastructure investment changed from "counter - cyclical strong hedging" to "precise support", and manufacturing investment showed resilience, becoming a key stabilizer in the overall economic downturn [20][21][23]. - **Export Demand**: In 2025, steel exports showed a complex picture of "steady growth in total volume, intensified price competition, and accelerated structural optimization". The implicit carbon cost of Chinese steel exports began to appear, and future competitiveness depends on product upgrading, carbon footprint reduction, and transformation to providing overall solutions [26][28] Fundamental Analysis Iron Ore - **Supply**: In 2025, the global iron ore supply continued to be loose. The global iron ore shipment volume was 16.4 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 516.3 million tons. Major mines such as Vale, BHP, and Rio Tinto had stable or increasing production. The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was at a high level in the past three years [30][31][33]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the production motivation of steel mills was strong, and the demand for iron ore increased significantly. The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 236.80 million tons, higher than the average in 2024. However, the demand for iron ore decreased in the second half of the year [36][39] - **Inventory**: In 2025, the iron ore inventory at Chinese 47 ports continued to accumulate, reaching a historical high. By the end of the year, the total inventory was 167.2179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.26 million tons [40] Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Supply**: In 2025, steel mills controlled production, and the output decreased. The output of high - value - added products increased significantly, optimizing the supply - side structure [42] - **Demand**: In 2025, domestic demand for steel was weak, mainly due to the continued drag of real estate and the slowdown of infrastructure growth. Exports were strong, with the cumulative steel exports from January to November reaching 107.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [51][53] - **Inventory**: In 2025, the steel mill inventory and social inventory of building materials remained at a low level. The steel mill inventory adopted an "active de - stocking" strategy, and the social inventory was in a "passive de - stocking" state [55][56] Thinking: Upgrade of Steel Export Mindset - **From "Product Export" to "Solution and Standard Output"**: Steel should become a carrier of green and intelligent building solutions, such as China Baowu's green - low - carbon production base in Saudi Arabia [61] - **From "Hard - Power Display" to "Soft - Power Communication"**: Steel needs to tell its own story, communicate its value in sustainable development and innovative design, and add a "brand story" dimension [62] - **From "One - Way Output" to "Ecosystem Co - construction and Local Integration"**: Steel export can be upgraded to co - construct an industrial ecosystem with local partners in overseas markets [63] Market Outlook - **Iron Ore**: In 2026, the iron ore market will enter a new stage dominated by "supply expansion cycle" and "demand structure differentiation", with global supply - demand becoming looser. The supply will increase significantly, and the demand is expected to decline slightly. The price center is expected to move down further, showing a "stable first and then weak" trend. It is recommended to seize the "short - term long and medium - term short" opportunities [3][64] - **Steel**: In 2026, the steel market will operate under the framework of "demand plateau" and "strong supply constraints". The core contradiction will shift from total over - supply to structural bottom - seeking of demand. The supply - demand weak balance will continue, and the cost - pricing weight will increase. Steel prices are expected to show a "wide - range fluctuation with a slightly lower center" trend. It is recommended to shift from the simple seasonal thinking of "high in the front and low in the back" to the "plate strong and construction weak" structural arbitrage opportunities [4][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand is basically balanced but shows an overall pattern of oversupply, with main supply growth points in China and Brazil, a decline in Australian output, and a significant reduction in Chinese consumption. The inventory - to - consumption ratio remains the same as last year [1]. - The U.S. cotton has had two consecutive years of bumper harvests, leading to a loose supply - demand situation in the international cotton market and putting downward pressure on ICE cotton prices. Vietnam has become the largest importer of U.S. cotton this year, and U.S. cotton faces great export pressure due to the deteriorating global trade environment [1]. - In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton market continues to have a loose supply - demand pattern. Benefiting from the release of Xinjiang's production capacity, the surplus cotton inventory in the market has been digested, but downstream orders have not improved substantially, squeezing textile enterprises' profits. The situation is unlikely to change in 2026, and attention should be paid to policies to boost consumption and their impact on commodity prices [1]. - China's cotton imports have shifted to Brazil and Australia. Brazil's cotton output has been hitting new highs, while Australia's output has been on a declining trend in recent years. The similar weather conditions in the two southern - hemisphere countries have increased supply uncertainty [2]. - In 2026, as the gap in planting income between cotton and corn/soybeans widens and China's cotton target - price subsidy policy is to be adjusted, the planting area may be adjusted, which will support cotton prices in the long - term. The price upward drive may be stronger than the downward pressure, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes in the first half of the year and policy price regulation [3]. Summary of Each Section 1. Market Review - In 2025, the Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a bottom - oscillating trend. From January to April, the price oscillated downward due to factors such as the market's over - heating correction, low inventory levels, consumption off - season, and Sino - U.S. trade frictions [10]. - From May to August, the cotton price rose as Sino - U.S. trade talks led to a reduction in tariff rates, and China's textile and clothing exports increased, along with a decline in industrial and commercial inventories [10]. - From September to October, the cotton price peaked and declined because of issues such as high delivery premiums and a high - opening - low - going new - cotton purchase price [11]. - From November to December, the cotton price rose again as Sino - U.S. trade negotiations made progress, tariffs were cancelled or postponed, and there were positive expectations for supply and demand [11]. 2. Supply - Demand Structure Analysis (1) Global - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton output increased slightly, consumption decreased slightly, and the supply - demand structure remained basically balanced. The main supply growth points were in China and Brazil, with a decline in Australian output, and the main consumption growth point was in Pakistan, but it could not offset the significant reduction in Chinese consumption [14]. - According to the USDA's December supply - demand report, the global cotton output in 2025/26 was 26.1142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.43%. Consumption was 25.857 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.27%. The ending inventory was 16.1615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.82%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio remained the same as last year [14]. - The gap in planting income between cotton and corn/soybeans has been widening, and the substitution effect may continue, so global cotton output may be adjusted in the future [15]. (2) U.S. Cotton - In the 2025/26 season, U.S. cotton had a bumper harvest for the second consecutive year, leading to a loose international supply - demand situation and putting downward pressure on ICE cotton prices. The output was 3.1109 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, and the export was estimated to be 2.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52% [21]. - Affected by Sino - U.S. trade tensions, China's imports of U.S. cotton continued to decline. Vietnam became the largest importer of U.S. cotton this year. As of December 11, 2025, China had signed contracts for 60,000 tons of U.S. cotton, less than half of last year, while Vietnam had signed contracts for 430,000 tons [23]. - As of December 12, the U.S. cotton export and signing progress was slightly slower than last year, but the shipment - to - signing ratio increased by 9.46 percentage points to 41.16% [23]. (3) Brazil and Australia - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's cotton output was expected to be 4.0875 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.29%, with an export of 3.161 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.36%. Australia's output was expected to be 981,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.64%, and the export was expected to be 1.1118 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.39% [28]. - Brazil's increasing output has increased supply liquidity and pressured import prices. Australia's output has been fluctuating and declining in recent years. The similar weather in the two southern - hemisphere countries has increased supply uncertainty [28]. (4) China - In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton output was expected to reach a record high of 7.303 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.69%, consumption was expected to be 8.393 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.28%, and imports were expected to be 1.1772 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.15% [32]. - China's state reserve has not carried out cotton rotation this year, and the domestic cotton inventory in the state reserve is estimated to be only 201,000 tons, at a relatively low level [32]. - China's cotton textile industry's PMI index has been hovering around the boom - bust line, indicating poor industry prosperity. The textile enterprises' operating rate is low, and the industry's profit is poor throughout the year [32]. - China's cotton market continued to have a loose supply - demand pattern in 2025/26. Although Xinjiang's production capacity has digested the surplus inventory, downstream orders have not improved, and it is difficult to change the situation in 2026 [33]. 3. Industry Operation Status (1) Seed - Cotton Cost, Production Enthusiasm, and Imports - In 2025, the cost of seed - cotton converted to lint was around 14,800 yuan/ton. China's cotton imports were only 900,000 tons this year, mainly from Brazil and Australia, and the proportion of U.S. cotton imports further decreased [37]. - Due to poor industry profits, the production enthusiasm of yarn and fabric enterprises was low, but the new production capacity in Xinjiang prevented a sharp increase in inventory [37]. - The current situation of low industry profits, high inventory, and low operating rates may continue [38]. (2) Domestic Demand and Export Trade - In 2025, domestic consumption was strong, with the cumulative retail sales of clothing and textile products increasing year - on - year, but export trade deteriorated, with the export of clothing and textile products decreasing year - on - year [41]. - In 2026, the international trade environment is more complex. Although the Sino - U.S. agreement to cancel a 24% tariff provides a short - term calm period, textile and clothing exports still face many difficulties [41]. 4. Future Outlook - In recent years, global cotton supply - demand has been stable but lackluster. In 2025, the supply - demand was basically balanced, and cotton prices were at a low level. In 2026, the planting area may be adjusted, which will support cotton prices in the long - term, and the market's long - short game may intensify from January to April [45]. - China's cotton textile industry has been shifting to Xinjiang, and the new production capacity in Xinjiang in 2026 will help stabilize cotton demand. Although the export of textile and clothing products will still face pressure, the short - term tariff suspension between China and the U.S. is conducive to the recovery of foreign trade [45]. - Overall, cotton prices are at a historical low, increasing price volatility. In 2026, the upward price drive may be stronger than the downward pressure, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes in the first half of the year and policy price regulation [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the global natural rubber production was 14.892 million tons, while the consumption was 15.565 million tons. The supply fell short of demand, and the inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive year since 2021, indicating significant de - stocking [1][15]. - The structural rubber production decline in traditional rubber - producing countries is likely irreversible. New plantings in traditional rubber - producing countries (except Indonesia) have limited growth, and these countries face issues such as industrial transformation, rubber tree aging. Emerging rubber - producing countries can hardly make up for the supply reduction of traditional ones. The low - inventory pattern is conducive to supporting the bottom price of natural rubber [1][15]. - China's natural rubber production has increased for two consecutive years, and the consumption remains at a high level. The high imports have led to high inventory throughout the year. The state reserve policy has shifted from net selling to mainly purchasing, providing phased support for rubber prices [2][25]. - In the future, the global natural rubber supply - demand pattern may gradually change from surplus to shortage. In the domestic market, the tire industry's stable growth in production and the new stage of the rubber collection and release policy will contribute to the upward movement of the bottom price of natural rubber [2][48]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures showed a wide - range oscillation, with the oscillation range between 13,850 - 18,230 yuan/ton. The price dropped from January to April due to the escalation of the tariff war. It rebounded from May to August as the main production areas started tapping, and the macro - environment improved. From September to October, the price declined due to the over - expected state reserve selling and weak supply - demand. From November to December, the price rose as the market expected a supply reduction in the next year [9]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Structure Analysis 3.2.1 Limited Global New Supply and the Fifth - Year De - stocking of ANRPC - In 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to be 14.892 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The consumption was expected to be 15.565 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.83%. The supply was short of demand, and the inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive year [15]. - Since 2012, the new planting area in major producing countries has been decreasing year by year, and the total global planting area has stopped growing since 2015. In the future, the global natural rubber is expected to continue the de - stocking trend [15]. 3.2.2 Structural Output Decline in Indonesia and Malaysia, and Irreversible Output Reduction in Major Producing Countries - Traditional rubber - producing countries, such as Malaysia, have undergone industrial transformation, and most of them face the problem of rubber tree aging. For example, nearly 60% of rubber trees in Indonesia and 40% in Malaysia are old [20]. - In 2025, from January to November, Thailand's natural rubber production increased by 2.81% year - on - year, Malaysia's decreased by 9.91%, Indonesia's decreased by 17.51%, and Vietnam's increased by 6.59% [20]. 3.2.3 Growth in China's Natural Rubber Output, High - Level Consumption, and High Inventory without an Inflection Point - From January to November 2025, China's natural rubber output was 881,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The actual consumption was 620,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.46% [25]. - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative natural rubber imports reached 757,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The high - output and high - import pattern led to high inventory throughout the year [25]. - In 2025, the state reserve's annual purchase volume was higher than the selling volume, marking the end of the "net selling cycle" and the beginning of the "mainly purchasing" stage [26]. 3.3 Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Sustained Replacement Demand and Significant Growth in Supporting Demand - From March to November 2025, the total highway freight volume reached 3.3726 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.29%. The logistics industry index was above the 50% boom - bust line, effectively supporting the tire replacement demand [32]. - From March to November 2025, China's automobile sales were 26.386 million, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.24%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative heavy - truck sales were 1.0408 million, a year - on - year increase of 27.32% [32]. 3.3.2 Tire Exports under Pressure, with Semi - steel Tires Performing Worse than All - steel Tires - From March to November 2025, China's rubber tire production was 914.774 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.14%. From January to November 2025, the rubber tire exports were 643.19 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.71% [39]. - The all - steel tire industry for commercial vehicles performed better than the semi - steel tire industry for passenger vehicles in terms of capacity utilization, inventory, and exports [39]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In 2025, the global natural rubber production and sales maintained steady growth, with the supply falling short of demand and the inventory continuing to decrease. In the future, the global supply - demand pattern may change from surplus to shortage [48]. - In the domestic market, the stable growth of the tire industry and the new stage of the rubber collection and release policy will help the bottom price of natural rubber move upward [49].

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a Hotspot Tracking released on January 9, 2026, by the Research and Consulting Department [2] Group 2: Daily Data Analysis Daily Price Changes and Fund Flows - The report presents the daily price changes and fund flows of various futures and commodities including Apple, CSI 500 Futures, CSI 1000 Futures, etc [5] Daily Fund Changes - It shows the percentage changes in funds for a wide range of futures and commodities [7] Daily Trading Volume Changes - The percentage changes in trading volume for different futures and commodities are provided [9] Daily Fund Inflow Ranking - The top five commodities with daily fund inflows are Apple, CSI 500 Futures, CSI 1000 Futures, Wire Rod, and Fuel Oil; the top five with daily fund outflows are Nickel, Peanut, Coking Coal, Pulp, and Alumina [11] Position Value Proportion - The position value proportions of different futures and commodities are given, with CSI 1000 Futures at 16%, CSI 500 Futures at 13%, Shanghai Gold at 11%, etc [14]