供需矛盾不突出，关注宏观及天气影响

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July, the rubber futures price rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Shanghai rubber closed at 14,560 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative increase of 575 yuan/ton, a rise of 4.11%. The INE 20 - rubber contract closed at 12,275 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative increase of 85 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.70% [1]. - The supply - demand contradiction of rubber is not significant, maintaining a loose supply - demand situation, but the phased supply - demand has improved. The phased bottom of rubber prices may have emerged. Long positions can be opportunistically arranged around the 01 contract of 14,000 - 15,000 [1][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In March, the rubber futures price showed a downward trend. As of March 28, the main contract of Shanghai rubber closed at 16,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative decrease of 1,010 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.70%. The INE 20 - rubber contract closed at 14,430 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative decrease of 985 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.39% [6]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) August is a high - incidence period for typhoons, pay attention to phased weather disturbances - In June, the supply of major Southeast Asian producing countries increased. From January to June, ANRPC had a year - on - year production increase of 4.6%. In July, there was more local rainfall in Thailand and frequent rainfall in Yunnan and Hainan of China, resulting in a phased reduction in supply. August is still a typhoon - prone period, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on phased rubber tapping [1][21]. - In June, Thailand's natural rubber production was 272,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99%; Indonesia's production was 200,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77%; Malaysia's production was 22,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.11%; Vietnam's production was 75,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67%. In June, ANRPC's total production was 862,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.94%. From January to June, ANRPC's total production was 3.8277 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.60% [8][9]. (2) Tire operating rate has recovered to a high level - After the concentrated maintenance of tire enterprises around May Day, the current operation has recovered to a high level. On July 31, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 74.45%, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 61.08% [11][12]. (3) In June, tire exports decreased year - on - year, while automobile production and sales, and heavy - truck sales increased year - on - year - In June 2025, China's automobile tire exports were 60.31 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.33%. From January to June, the cumulative exports of new pneumatic tires were 285.57 million pieces, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.98% [13]. - In June, automobile sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.83%, and heavy - truck sales were 97,900 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 37.14% [15][20]. 3. Future Outlook - The supply - demand contradiction of rubber is not large, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. However, the phased supply - demand has improved. The phased bottom of rubber prices may have emerged. Long positions can be opportunistically arranged around the 01 contract of 14,000 - 15,000 [1][21].