贵金属周报（AU、AG）：非农爆冷，金银反弹-20250804

Report Title - [Precious Metals Weekly Report (AU, AG): Non-farm Payrolls Disappoint, Gold and Silver Rebound] [1] Report Date - August 4, 2025 [2] Report Analyst - Bai Suna [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The sharp deterioration of the US labor market and pressure from the Trump administration make it highly likely that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, which may continue to support the gold price to remain strong. Silver is expected to follow gold but may underperform in the face of new concerns about an economic recession [5]. - In the long - term, the gold price still has room to rise, supported by factors such as the high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, global geopolitical instability, intensifying de - globalization, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit, which will keep central banks net gold buyers [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio - London spot gold was at $3362.64 per ounce, up $26.42 (0.79%) from the previous week; Shanghai gold futures主力 was at 770.72 yuan per gram, down 6.6 yuan (-0.85%) [4]. - London spot silver was at $37.017 per ounce, down $1.12 (-2.94%); Shanghai silver futures主力 was at 8918 yuan per kilogram, down 474 yuan (-5.05%) [4]. - The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 86.42, up 3.66 (4.42%) [4]. ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR - ETF holdings were 953.08 tons, down 4.01 tons (-0.42%); COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions (lagged by one week) were 223,596 contracts, down 29,442 contracts (-11.64%) [4]. - Silver SLV - ETF holdings were 15,057 tons, down 174 tons (-1.14%); COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions (lagged by one week) were 59,407 contracts, down 1,213 contracts (-2.00%) [4]. Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory was 35.745 tons, up 5.49 tons (18.13%); COMEX gold inventory was 1204.19 tons, up 29.65 tons (2.52%) [4]. - SHFE silver inventory was 1184 tons, down 3.3 tons (-0.28%); COMEX silver inventory was 15,759 tons, up 197.22 tons (1.27%); SGE silver inventory (lagged by one week) was 1368 tons, up 56.42 tons (4.30%) [4] 2. Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was 98.6900, up 1.0199 (1.04%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1929, up 0.0248 (0.35%) [4]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.6981%, down 0.2294 percentage points (-5.84%); the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.2198%, down 0.168 percentage points (-3.83%); the US 10 - year real interest rate was 1.9%, down 0.06 percentage points (-3.06%) [4]. US Economic Data - US July non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, far below expectations and the previous value, and the unemployment rate rebounded to 4.2%, indicating a sharp slowdown risk in the US labor market [5]. - The US July ISM manufacturing PMI was below expectations and in the contraction range for five consecutive months, potentially triggering new concerns about a US economic recession [5]. - The US second - quarter GDP growth was strong, and the consumer confidence index improved [57]. - US manufacturing PMI declined again, while service PMI was better than expected [59]. - Employment cooled significantly, with job vacancies and labor participation rates decreasing [64][65]. - Inflation rebounded slightly, but inflation expectations cooled [70]. Eurozone and UK Economic Data - Eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while service PMI declined; the Eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded [79][80]. - Eurozone and UK inflation data showed different trends, and the European Central Bank and the Bank of England maintained their interest rates [81] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, with 73.9 million ounces of gold reserves at the end of June, an increase of 700,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) month - on - month [89]. - In Q1 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased 243.7 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 21.4%, but still maintaining a net - buying trend [89]. Strategy Recommendations - Hold long positions in gold; consider buying silver on dips [5]