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利率:从“逢调买入”到“逢低止盈”
Soochow Securities·2025-08-04 04:32

Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The 10-year interest rate continues to fluctuate within a "rate corridor" defined by the 250-day moving averages of DR001 and DR007, with the lower bound at 1.58% and the upper bound at 1.74%[7] - In July, the 10-year interest rate rose by 6.30bps, while the 30-year rate increased by 9.74bps, indicating a significant upward adjustment in rates during this period[6] - The 10-year interest rate has tested the upper boundary of the corridor twice in March and July, but has not effectively broken above the DR007 annual line[12] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategy Shifts - Market sentiment is shifting from "buying on dips" to "taking profits on lows" as the anticipation of "anti-involution" policies has changed investor behavior[13] - The average spread between DR001 and the 10-year interest rate was 1.73bps from May to June, indicating a strong correlation between these rates during this period[12] - The bond market is experiencing pressure from potential "supply-side reform 2.0," which could lead to upward pressure on interest rates due to rising commodity prices[16] Group 3: Economic and Policy Considerations - The expectation of "re-inflation" in the economy relies on closing the output gap, suggesting that mere price increases may not sustain upward pressure on interest rates[16] - The report highlights risks such as the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and the unclear path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which could impact U.S. Treasury yields and dollar liquidity[18] - The bond market is expected to see a moderate downward correction in interest rates as liquidity conditions improve, with DR001 returning to the 1.40%-1.30% range[12]