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银河证券每日晨报-20250804
Yin He Zheng Quan·2025-08-04 05:03

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The US non-farm payrolls for July showed a significant drop, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 110,000, and previous months' data was revised downwards by 258,000 jobs [2][3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.25%, while hourly wages increased year-on-year to 3.91%, indicating a mixed labor market scenario [2][3] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating three cuts totaling 75 basis points by December 2025, reflecting concerns over economic weakness [6][8] Group 2: Chemical Industry Insights - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a concentration of production capacity, with leading companies increasing their market share, resulting in a more orderly supply environment [19][22] - Demand for polyester filament remains stable, with a seasonal uptick expected in the second half of the year as inventory levels are low [20][22] - The cost pressures from raw materials are expected to ease, with oil price fluctuations influencing the cost structure of polyester filament production [21][22] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is witnessing a recovery in public fund holdings, with a notable increase in the market value of heavy holdings, indicating a structural rebound [25][28] - Recent policy changes in drug procurement are expected to favor quality over price, potentially stabilizing profit margins for innovative drug and device companies [26][28] - The medical device market is showing signs of recovery, with significant growth in tendering activities, particularly in medical imaging and rehabilitation equipment [27][28] Group 4: North Exchange Market Insights - The North Exchange market has seen a decline in trading activity, with the average daily turnover dropping to approximately 251 billion yuan [31][32] - The overall market valuation remains high, with the North Exchange's price-to-earnings ratio at around 50.9 times, indicating potential for long-term investment value [32][34] - The introduction of new indices and steady progress in IPOs are expected to maintain a high level of market interest and activity [34]