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宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250804
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-04 05:12

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - PX prices fluctuated and declined this week, with the absolute price down 3.2% week-on-week to $846/ton CFR by Friday, and the weekly average price slightly stronger, up 0.6% week-on-week to $856/ton CFR. PTA has new device commissioning plans in the third quarter, creating a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether PX profitability can continue to improve depends on more expected external factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain, with social inventory being depleted. However, it is currently the off - season for polyester consumption, and after a significant drop in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream开工 [2]. - The market has already factored in the impact of the maintenance of a 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China, and the spot basis is weak. Crude oil failed to recover Wednesday's losses, the bulk chemical market continued to be weak, and the PTA market declined. Currently, PTA processing fees are in a low - range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to new device commissioning expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season. In a warming macro - environment, PTA may experience an upward trend, but it is difficult to have a trend - type upward market without fundamental resonance. Currently, PTA supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to whether the rumors of maintenance of several PTA devices in early August will materialize. Polyester production cuts are currently on hold, and the开工 rate remains relatively stable. The negative feedback from weaving has only reached the polyester segment. From the perspective of industrial chain profits, the strong driving force from the cost side has caused the profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain to tilt towards the raw material segment again. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5,900 - 6,020 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The raw materials PTA and bottle chip futures are oscillating at a low level. Most supply - side quotes for bottle chips have been lowered, and the downstream terminal's intention to replenish inventory has improved. Recently, the supply - side operating rate of bottle chips has remained at a low level, and the market supply is sufficient. The downstream terminals are replenishing inventory due to low prices, and the market trading atmosphere may decline [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly. (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On August 1, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $67.33/barrel, down 2.79% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $69.67/barrel, down 3.94%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $604/ton, down 1.15%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $711.5/ton, down 1.25% [1]. - PTA: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,744 yuan/ton, down 1.33%; the settlement price was 4,762 yuan/ton, down 1.65%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 4,751 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,740 yuan/ton, down 1.78%, and the CCFEI price index of overseas PTA was $641/ton (July 31, 2025), down 0.47% [1]. - PX: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,812 yuan/ton, down 1.67%; the settlement price was 6,846 yuan/ton, down 1.92%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,881 yuan/ton, down 0.82% [1]. - PR: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,918 yuan/ton, down 0.94%; the settlement price was 5,934 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 0.67%, and in the South China market was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [1]. - Downstream: On August 1, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,560 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,880 yuan/ton, down 1.09%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 0.67% [2] Operating Conditions - On August 1, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industrial chain was 77.29%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA plants was 74.06%, down 2.58 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester plants was 86.15%, down 0.13 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip plants was 71.93%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.83%, unchanged [1]. - On August 1, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 25%, down 2 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 56%, up 7 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 60%, down 12 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China started maintenance on August 1 for about 2 weeks [2] Trading Strategy - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton (- 2.02%), with an intraday trading volume of 678,200 lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton (- 2.41%), with an intraday trading volume of 141,700 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 5,918 yuan/ton (- 1.30%), with an intraday trading volume of 21,800 lots [2]