Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [9]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, in the short term, they may continue to correct, and investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities after the correction [12]. - The supply and demand pattern of iron ore is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. After the short - term correction, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [14]. - For coking coal and coke, in the short term, they may continue to fluctuate sharply, and investors can temporarily wait and see [17]. - In the short term, ferroalloys may continue to have oversupply, and after the decline, investors can consider low - level long - position opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [20]. - The crude oil market is complex and uncertain, and the main crude oil contract should be temporarily observed [21][22][23]. - The fuel oil market in Asia has sufficient supply, and the main fuel oil contract should be temporarily observed [25]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27]. - For natural rubber, after the correction, pay attention to long - position opportunities [29]. - PVC may fluctuate strongly in the short term [31]. - Urea may fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading can be considered [35]. - PTA may have a correction risk in the short term and generally maintain a volatile operation, and interval trading can be considered [37]. - For ethylene glycol, in the short term, interval trading is the main strategy, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - fiber may follow the cost to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. - Bottle - chip is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate, and risk control should be noted [41]. - The soda ash market may continue to adjust at a high level in supply, and the price may be under pressure [42]. - For glass, it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to spot trade and regional destocking [44]. - The caustic soda market is gradually returning to the fundamental logic, and the price may be affected by supply and demand [47]. - The pulp market has supply pressure, and the price may fluctuate and organize [49]. - For lithium carbonate, it is advisable to watch more and trade less and control risks [52]. - For copper, pay attention to short - position opportunities [54]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate [58]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate [59]. - For soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits when the price rises to a high level [60][61][62]. - Consider long - position opportunities for palm oil [63]. - Consider long - position opportunities for rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [66]. - For cotton, it is recommended to go short after a rebound [68]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, and it may run in an interval [71]. - For apples, go short after a rebound [75]. - For live pigs, consider gradually taking profits on previous short positions [77]. - For eggs, consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [80]. - For corn, consider virtual call option opportunities in the low - level interval of the near - month contract; corn starch follows the corn market [82]. - For logs, the market may be driven by relevant policies, and the inventory is slightly destocked [86]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, the closing performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The central bank carried out 126 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 663.3 billion yuan on the same day. The central bank requires to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The US non - farm data was poor, and the treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend market and should be treated with caution [5][6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The government will resume levying VAT on the interest income of newly issued bonds after August 8, 2025. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying behavior, and the expected Fed rate cut are favorable for the long - term bullish trend of precious metals, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [9]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy expectations dominate the short - term market, and in the medium term, the price will return to the supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the rebar price. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities after the correction [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out. Policy expectations affect the market, and the supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. After the short - term correction, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The limit - position measure of the Dalian Commodity Exchange is the direct cause of the decline. In the medium term, the price will return to the supply - demand logic. Investors can temporarily wait and see [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of manganese ore has increased recently, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while the demand is weak. After the decline, investors can consider low - level long - position opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [19][20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated downward. The CFTC data shows changes in the net long positions of speculators. The Baker Hughes report shows a decrease in the number of oil and gas rigs. The OPEC + meeting may increase production in September. The market is complex and uncertain, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [21][22][23]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated in an interval. A large amount of fuel oil is expected to arrive in Asia in August, resulting in sufficient supply in the Asian market. The main contract should be temporarily observed [25]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The raw material price has rebounded, and the supply and demand situation has changed. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The macro - market sentiment has cooled down, and the supply - side disturbance has temporarily slowed down. After the correction, pay attention to long - position opportunities [29]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. In the short term, it may fluctuate strongly. The production has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak [31]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The supply is still high, and the demand of downstream products has increased. It may fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The supply and demand are in a tight balance in the short term, and the cost support of crude oil has weakened. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading can be considered [35]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply changes little in the short term, the demand is expected to weaken, and the cost support of crude oil has weakened. It may have a correction risk and maintain a volatile operation, and interval trading can be considered [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply pressure has increased, but the inventory has decreased and is at a low level. In the short term, interval trading is the main strategy, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply has increased, and the demand is general. It may follow the cost to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The number of device overhauls has increased, and the demand of downstream products has increased. It is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate, and risk control should be noted [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The production has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The downstream glass supply has changed. The supply may continue to adjust at a high level, and the price may be under pressure [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is stable, and the destocking speed has increased. The market sentiment has cooled down, and it should be treated with caution. Attention should be paid to spot trade and regional destocking [44]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the market is gradually returning to the fundamental logic. The price may be affected by supply and demand [47]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand of downstream products is weak. The "anti - involution" policy sentiment has cooled down, and the price may fluctuate and organize [49]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply is still high, and the demand has improved, but the trading is still cold. The supply of the ore end is uncertain, and it is advisable to watch more and trade less and control risks [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated upward. The US tariff policy and supply - demand factors affect the copper price. The copper price is in a downward trend in the interval, and pay attention to short - position opportunities [54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of the ore end is tight, and the consumption is in the off - season. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate [58]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose slightly. The price of the ore end has weakened, and the demand of downstream products is not optimistic. The inventory is relatively high, and it is expected to fluctuate [59]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The weather in the main production areas is suitable, and the market has good expectations for a bumper harvest. The inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the inventory pressure of soybean oil is emerging. For soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits when the price rises to a high level [60][61][62]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil futures were affected by the exchange rate and tariff policies. The export volume in July decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased. Consider long - position opportunities [63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fell. The domestic import volume of rapeseed and its products has changed. The inventory situation is different. Consider long - position opportunities [66]. Cotton - Domestic and foreign cotton futures fell. The US cotton production and inventory are expected to increase, and the domestic production is expected to increase. The global supply and demand are expected to be loose, and it is recommended to go short after a rebound [68]. Sugar - Domestic and foreign sugar futures had different performances. The sugar production in Brazil has accelerated, and Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic inventory is low, and the import volume is high. It is recommended to observe, and it may run in an interval [71]. Apples - Domestic apple futures fell. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly. Go short after a rebound [75]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs fell. The supply has increased, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Consider gradually taking profits on previous short positions [77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. Consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [80]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn and corn starch futures fell. The US and Brazilian corn are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic supply and demand are approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. For corn, consider virtual call option opportunities in the low - level interval of the near - month contract; corn starch follows the corn market [82]. Logs - Log futures fell. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The relevant policy may drive the market [86].
西南期货早间评论-20250804
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-08-04 05:16