豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250804

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Bean Meal Futures: The main contract of bean meal futures is in a wide - range oscillation phase. With ample domestic soybean supply, high oil - mill operation rates, but limited terminal demand, and international factors like strong US soybean harvest expectations and export pressure, along with uncertainties in Sino - US trade policies and rising Brazilian soybean premiums, the bean meal futures are expected to continue the wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Soybean Oil Futures: The main contract of soybean oil futures is also in a wide - range oscillation. High soybean arrivals support high oil - mill operation rates, and although the inventory has slightly decreased, it remains at a high level with slow terminal consumption recovery. International factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, uncertainties in Sino - US tariff policies, and biodiesel policy expectations affect the price. It is advised to wait and see [30]. 3. Summary by Directory Bean Meal Futures - Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The main bean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 30th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2389 million tons, with an operation rate of 62.94%. The bean meal inventory was 1.0431 million tons, an increase of 44,700 tons or 4.48% from the previous week. Domestic soybean supply is abundant, but terminal demand is limited. Internationally, US soybean prices are under pressure, while Sino - US trade uncertainties and rising Brazilian soybean premiums support domestic bean meal costs [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices was sideways, with slightly more long - side funds. The M2509 contract was expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 3150 in the short term [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices is sideways, with more short - side funds. The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 3150 in the short term [10]. - Related Data - The report provides data on bean meal weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [19][21][25]. Soybean Oil Futures - Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 30th week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 425,400 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0881 million tons, a decrease of 3700 tons from the previous week. High soybean arrivals support high oil - mill operation rates, and the supply - strong and demand - weak situation continues. International factors affect the price [30]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [30]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was sideways, with strongly short - side funds. The Y2509 contract was expected to oscillate widely in the range of 7950 - 8280 in the short term [33]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in an upward channel, with strongly long - side funds. The Y2509 contract is expected to run strongly in the range of 8000 - 8400 in the short term [33]. - Related Data - The report provides data on soybean oil weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [44][46][50][54][57].