对二甲苯：供应边际宽松，月差大幅回落，PTA：趋势偏弱，月差关注正套

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, paper pulp, methanol, urea, styrene, PVC: Trend is weak or trending down [-1] [8] [12] - PP,烧碱,纯碱, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [0] [37] [42] [66] - 集运指数（欧线）: Suggest holding short positions, may continue to be weak [25] [75] Core Views - With the approaching deadline of the peace agreement on August 8, Trump's threat of secondary sanctions and tariffs on countries doing business with Russia may impact the oil market. If implemented, it could remove 4 million barrels per day of oil from the market and push crude prices above $100 per barrel [6] [8] - Various commodities in the energy - chemical industry show different trends. Supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment all influence commodity prices [8] [9] [10] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply is marginally more relaxed, month - spread has dropped significantly. Suggest reverse spread on month - spread and short PXN on the short side. 8 - month has no new maintenance, but some plants plan to restart, while PTA demand may decline [8] - PTA: Trend is weak, focus on positive spread on month - spread. Polyester factory开工率 is low, raw material inventory - holding willingness is down, and the polyester sector is entering a stocking phase [9] - MEG: Unilateral trend is downward. Domestic plant开工率 will rise, polyester device开工率 is low, and attention should be paid to the situation of the main contract changing hands and the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions [10] Rubber - Trend is weak and fluctuating. EU's anti - dumping policy on Chinese tires may impact exports. In June, Chinese tire exports decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [12] [14] Synthetic Rubber - Runs weakly. Short - term price may correct from high levels and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term. Market is affected by news and conflicts, with sample enterprise inventory decreasing and port inventory of butadiene dropping [16] [17] [18] Asphalt - Oscillates at high levels, beware of another rise in crude oil. This week, domestic asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, maintenance volume decreased, and shipment volume increased slightly [19] [31] LLDPE - Trend still faces pressure. In August, maintenance volume will decrease, and new production capacity is expected in the third quarter. Although inventory is lower than the same period last year, it is gradually entering a stocking phase [32] [33] PP - Spot price drops, trading is light. PP futures oscillate weakly, suppressing the spot market atmosphere. Downstream procurement willingness is still low [36] [37] 烧碱 - Although currently in the off - season with limited upward momentum, there are expectations for peak - season demand. In the long term, mid - August plant maintenance and downstream restocking may drive up the spot price [41] Paper Pulp - Oscillates weakly. Demand is weak, downstream paper mills' shipments are poor, and port inventory is high [44] [46] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. Market speculative supplies impact the spot market, causing sales of float glass factories to weaken, with prices in some regions dropping and a slight increase in the South China region [50] [51] Methanol - Oscillates under pressure. Short - term price may correct from high levels and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term. The port market is affected by weather and inventory, and the inland market is affected by olefin plant procurement [56] Urea - Pressure gradually increases. In late July, enterprise inventory increased, and short - term prices may correct from high levels and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term [58] [59] Styrene - Compress profit and take profit in time, short on the short side. Styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and port inventory is accelerating the stocking process [61] [62] 纯碱 - The spot market changes little. Supply is at a high level, downstream demand is tepid, and the market is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [66] PVC - Weakly oscillates in the short term. Supply is increasing steadily, demand improvement is limited, and inventory has been accumulating for more than five weeks. High - production and high - inventory patterns are difficult to change in the short term [68] [69] [70] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil continues to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil turns down at night. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has significantly retracted [73] 集运指数（欧线） - Hold short positions as appropriate, or the weakness may continue. Freight rates of European and US - West routes are showing a downward trend, and future shipping schedules may be dynamically adjusted [75]