Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Plastic - Maintains a weak reality, expected to fluctuate within a range. The 2509 contract of plastic is expected to trade within the short - term range of 7200 - 7500, and it is recommended to short at high prices [5]. PP - Faces significant trend pressure, short - term oscillation is weak. The PP2509 is expected to trade within the range of 6900 - 7200 in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On August 1st, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7317 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last month, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%. LDPE average price was 9516.67 yuan/ton, down 0.52% month - on - month; HDPE average price was 7975 yuan/ton, down 1.69% month - on - month; the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7508.24 yuan/ton, down 0.31% month - on - month. The LLDPE South China basis was 191.24 yuan/ton, down 29.37% month - on - month, and the 6 - 9 month spread was 111 yuan/ton (+81). The basis shrank and the month spread widened [5][8]. Fundamental Changes - Cost and Profit: WTI crude oil closed at 67.26 US dollars/barrel this week, up 2.29 US dollars/barrel from last month; Brent crude oil closed at 69.52 US dollars/barrel, up 2.89 US dollars/barrel from last month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton (+20). The profit of oil - based PE was - 490 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from last month; the profit of coal - based PE was 1195 yuan/ton, down 358 yuan/ton from last month. It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE will run weakly and the profit of coal - based PE will run strongly [5][18][23]. - Supply: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 81.09%, up 4.65 percentage points from last month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 63.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.32%. The maintenance of petrochemical enterprise equipment remained at a high level this week. The maintenance loss this week was 9.14 tons, down 2.21 tons from last week [5][26]. - Demand: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 12.63%, up 0.28% from last month; the operating rate of PE packaging film was 48.70%, down 0.74% from last month; the operating rate of PE pipes was 28.67%, down 0.34% from last month [5][30]. - Inventory: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.17 tons at the end of this month, up 9.70 tons from the end of last month, a month - on - month increase of 20.87% [5][35]. Main Operating Logic - In July, affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution, coal and downstream commodities rose significantly, driving the PE market to rebound. But as the sentiment cooled, the market price corrected, and the market trading returned to fundamentals. There was new production capacity put into operation in July, and the production capacity will continue to increase in the second half of the year, so the supply pressure remains high. The maintenance loss this month remained at a high level but showed an obvious decline. The operating rate of downstream agricultural film is expected to increase due to the approaching peak season of plastic film. The operating rates of protective film and pipes remain stable. The low - level social inventory provides some support to the market [5]. PP Market Changes - On August 1st, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 7098 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from last month. The spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 7290 yuan/ton (+0.16%) [6][43][48]. Fundamental Changes - Cost and Profit: WTI crude oil closed at 67.26 US dollars/barrel this week, up 2.29 US dollars/barrel from last month; Brent crude oil closed at 69.52 US dollars/barrel, up 2.89 US dollars/barrel from last month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton (+20). The profit of oil - based PP was - 473.06 yuan/ton, down 14.35 yuan/ton from last month; the profit of coal - based PP was 684.71 yuan/ton, down 347.77 yuan/ton from last month [6][56][60]. - Supply: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.94%, down 0.50 percentage points from last month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 77.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.50 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.39% [6][64]. - Demand: This week, the average operating rate of downstream industries was 48.40% (+0.03). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 41.10% (-2.00), the operating rate of BOPP was 60.80% (+0%), the operating rate of injection molding was 55.80% (+0.22%), and the operating rate of pipes was 36.17% (-0.30%) [6][70]. - Inventory: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 56.48 tons (-2.72%); the inventory of two major oil companies decreased by 5.44% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 4.02% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 7.14% month - on - month [6][75]. Main Operating Logic - In July, affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution, coal and downstream commodities rose significantly, driving the PP market to rebound. But as the sentiment cooled, the market price corrected, and the market trading returned to fundamentals. Although there were intensive maintenance activities in July, they were not enough to relieve the supply pressure. The operating rates of downstream industries such as plastic weaving fluctuated slightly, and the demand remained weak. It is expected that the PP market will be mainly driven by fundamentals, and the PP2509 is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6].
长江期货聚烯烃月报-20250804
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-08-04 05:12