城投债投资框架之二：长期定价看什么

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that regional strength and provincial competitiveness are the primary long-term factors influencing the pricing strategy of urban investment bonds, which includes major regional and provincial strategies, historical central government support, and the spatial planning of provincial and municipal sub-centers [2][12]. - The report identifies four key indicators to assess regional strength and competitiveness: (1) recent major regional development strategies introduced by the state, (2) guidance from national leaders following inspections of the province, (3) provincial government development strategies or key industrial chain plans post the 20th National Congress, and (4) the number and economic contribution of national new areas and high-tech zones [3][19][20]. - Historical central government support is highlighted as a crucial factor, including transfer payment amounts, new special bond quotas, and the distribution of special refinancing bonds, which serve as indicators of regional strength and debt resolution capabilities [22]. Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of the "2021-2035 National Land Spatial Planning" on urban investment platforms, noting that the approval of these plans has led to large-scale infrastructure investments by local governments, which are essential for analyzing regional strength and competitiveness [23][24]. - It outlines the urban expansion patterns, indicating that urban investment bond pricing strategies are influenced by the strategic development positioning and long-term trends of provinces, cities, and counties, which may lead to increased policy funding in newly planned urban areas [5][33]. - The report emphasizes the importance of provincial and municipal sub-centers as they are expected to attract talent, policy funding, and resources, thereby enhancing regional economic development [30][31].