纯苯、苯乙烯周报：情绪反转，纯苯苯乙烯情绪跟随-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on styrene is "oscillating", with the expectation that styrene will be mainly supported by cost and tend to be bullish [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - Energy and raw material prices have stabilized and partially rebounded after a sharp decline recently. Asian styrene prices are stable, while the domestic fundamentals are weak. Inventory continues to accumulate, and market sentiment remains weak. The spreads between styrene and naphtha and benzene indicate that the economics for non - integrated producers in Asia are still poor. Domestic traditional off - season consumption prospects are dim, and sales activities are still sluggish. Coastal inventory and stable domestic styrene supply exert pressure on prices. However, domestic polymer demand remains stable, and the operating loads of EPS, PS, acrylonitrile, butadiene, and ABS are stable [4][132]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bullish. Energy and raw material prices have dropped significantly recently. Asian styrene prices are stable, domestic fundamentals are weak, inventory is accumulating, and market sentiment has weakened. The spreads between styrene and naphtha and benzene are $310/ton and $180 respectively, and the economics for non - integrated producers in Asia are poor [4]. - Demand: Bearish. Domestic traditional off - season consumption prospects are dim, sales activities are still sluggish. Coastal inventory and stable domestic styrene supply pressure prices. Domestic polymer demand remains stable, and the operating loads of EPS, PS, acrylonitrile, butadiene, and ABS are stable [4]. - Inventory: Neutral. As of July 28, 2025, the total sample inventory of styrene ports in Jiangsu was 164,000 tons, an increase of 13,300 tons or 8.83% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 67,500 tons, an increase of 11,300 tons or 20.11% from the previous period [4]. - Basis: Bearish. The styrene basis has weakened, and styrene profits have shrunk [4]. - Profit: Bearish. The spreads between styrene and naphtha and benzene are $310/ton and $180 respectively [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. Styrene plant supply has increased, profits have been compressed, valuation is neutral, and commodity sentiment has weakened [4]. - Macro - policy: Bullish. Trump threatened to punish India if it did not cut off Russian oil imports, but Indian officials said they would continue to buy cheap oil from Russia [4]. - Investment View: Oscillating. Styrene is expected to be mainly supported by cost and tend to be bullish [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - Crude Oil: US sanctions on Russian crude oil have intensified [6]. - Styrene: The profits of styrene integrated plants have shrunk, and the volume of styrene arriving at ports has increased. The commodity sentiment of pure benzene has weakened, and it has followed the downward trend [14][25][36]. - Pure Benzene: The volume and price of aniline have increased. The balance of benzene is expected to tighten in August. The ratio of benzene to crude oil has strengthened, and the arbitrage window between North America and the world is about to open. However, the unplanned maintenance of North American styrene plants is still a negative factor for pure benzene demand [71][83]. 3.3 Overview of Polymer Demand - Styrene Downstream: - ABS: Downstream demand is weak, with mainstream prices, production, and inventory data showing certain trends [51][55]. - PS: Inventory has rebounded, and profits have declined [63]. - EPS: The operating load has increased, and gross profit has recovered [73]. - Pure Benzene: - Aniline has seen an increase in both volume and price [83]. - The balance of benzene is expected to tighten in August, and the market is gradually recovering. However, the impact of tariffs on North American styrene exports needs to be considered [71]. - Other Products: - Phenol inventory has declined [93]. - Adipic acid production gross profit is low [104]. - Caprolactam production has decreased, and inventory has declined [117]. - Home appliance export demand is expected to decline slightly after concentrated exports [128].