商品冲高回落，棉市震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", indicating that the short - term demand is average and the supply is in a loose pattern, and the market may fluctuate within a range [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply is bearish as the shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in while the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not. The demand is neutral due to over - capacity in spinning and high operating rates. The overall view is that the market will oscillate in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bearish. The shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in, and the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not yet priced in [3] - Demand: Neutral. Spinning over - capacity and high operating rates lead to strong industrial demand for cotton [3] - Inventory: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with the basis of Xinjiang Shuang 28 spot at 1000 - 1200. The spread between September and January contracts of Zhengzhou cotton strengthened continuously this week [3] - Profit: Bearish. Spinning in Xinjiang has a slight loss, and spinning in the inland has a serious loss. The spread between yarn and cotton prices is running at a low level [3] - Valuation: Neutral. The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years [3] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for supporting the long - term demand for domestic cotton, which is bullish for far - month contracts. Internationally, Sino - US trade negotiations are in a short - term deadlock, and the tariff exemption period is extended again, which is bearish in terms of sentiment [3] - Investment View: Oscillation. Short - term demand is average, and supply is in a loose pattern, so the market may fluctuate within a range [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Lightly short the CF01 contract; Arbitrage: Reverse spread between CF1 - 5 contracts [3] 3.2 Cotton Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Upstream Planting - Area Forecast: The forecast shows an increase in cotton - planting area. The first survey in 2025 shows that the national cotton - planting area is expected to be 4159.9 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 1.88%, and the area in Xinjiang is expected to be 3678.8 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 3.18% [5][8][9] - Yield per Unit Area: The report provides historical data on cotton yield per unit area in the whole country and Xinjiang from 2013 to 2025. For example, in 2025, the national yield per unit area is expected to be 149.9 kg/mu, and that in Xinjiang is expected to be 158.5 kg/mu [10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream Situation - Inventory: There is inventory accumulation of finished products. The raw material and finished - product inventories of yarn mills and weaving mills are presented in the form of historical data of multiple years [18][19] - Factory Load: The operating rate is declining. The loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are shown in historical data of multiple years [25][26] - Yarn Mill Profit: There are losses. The immediate spinning profit and the spot spread between yarn and cotton are presented in historical data of multiple years [29][30] 3.2.3 Downstream Situation - Inventory: At a seasonal high. The inventories and finished - product inventories of textile and clothing enterprises above designated size are presented in historical data of multiple years [32][33] 3.2.4 Import and Export Situation - Domestic Import: The report shows historical data on the monthly and cumulative imports of domestic cotton and cotton yarn from 2018 to 2025 [37] - US Cotton Export - Overall: The signing volume is at the lowest in recent years, and the shipment is seasonally increasing [39] - To China: Significantly decreased year - on - year, at a low level in the same period [48] - To Pakistan: Significantly increased year - on - year, at a high level in the same period [54] - To Vietnam: The signing and shipment volumes have significantly increased year - on - year [60] - To Bangladesh: The shipment volume has decreased year - on - year [67] 3.3 Cotton Capital - related Data - Zhengzhou Cotton Basis: Oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts is presented in historical data of multiple years [73][74] - Zhengzhou Cotton Spread: The spreads between Zhengzhou cotton 09 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [77] - Zhengzhou Cotton Position: The position of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The positions of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [79][80] - Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt: The virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract are presented in historical data of multiple years [84][85] - Management Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton Futures: The net long positions and the proportion of long positions of management funds in US cotton futures and options are presented in historical data of multiple years [91][92] - US Cotton Spread: In a deep contango state. The spreads between US cotton 05 - 07 and 07 - 12 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [95][96]