股指慢牛，关注IM

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current market, with the easing of overseas risk factors, the A - share market may continue to rise in the shock center in August. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut and tariff negotiation disturbances. If external risks ease and the semi - annual report performance verification exceeds expectations, technology growth (AI, robots) and high - dividend (banks, power) sectors may become the main lines of capital switching. IH is for configuration, and IM is for offensive [2][3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - CPI: In a certain month, due to the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, the year - on - year CPI turned from a decline to a 0.1% increase. The food item decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The non - food item increased by 0.1% year - on - year, showing a situation of "rising industrial products and stable service growth" [7] - PPI: The year - on - year decline of PPI widened to 3.6% in a certain month. Externally, the year - on - year price of exported goods increased by 0.5%, ending a two - year decline. Domestically, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment slowed down to - 11.2%, and the price of production materials was flat month - on - month. Necessities such as clothing and daily necessities showed signs of stabilization [11] - Export: In a certain month, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year (in US dollars), with the growth rate further increasing compared to the previous month. There were two trends in structural characteristics: the "rush to export" effect continued to strengthen, and the export to free - trade agreement partners mainly in ASEAN reached a growth rate of 16.92%; the Sino - US tariff agreement was implemented, and the export of some commodities continued to recover [16] - Consumption and Real Estate: In a certain month, the growth rate of social retail sales decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 4.8%, still showing robustness. The decline was mainly affected by the drop in catering revenue, the pre - placement of shopping festivals, and the post - holiday consumption decline. The real estate market remained sluggish, and key indicators such as investment and sales grew weakly [19] - Manufacturing: In a certain month, the manufacturing PMI rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. Sub - indicators showed structural differentiation: the production index returned to the expansion range, the new export orders increased slightly but were still below the boom - bust line; the raw material inventory index increased slightly for several consecutive months, indicating a marginal increase in enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory. In terms of prices, the gap between the purchase price index and the ex - factory price index remained the same, indicating that the cost pressure on mid - and downstream enterprises remained [22] - Policy: The central bank continued the "dual - track" regulatory thinking in a certain month, maintaining the historical low of the 1 - year LPR and guiding commercial banks to lower the upper limit of deposit interest rates. The fiscal policy continued the orientation of "increasing intensity and efficiency", with the tax revenue decline narrowing and the proportion of people's livelihood expenditure exceeding 70%. Multiple policies were introduced to stimulate domestic demand and deepen capital market reform [26] 3.2 Market Review - Overall Market: In a certain month, A - shares generally rose. At the end of the month, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at a certain point, up by a certain percentage compared to the end of the previous month. The ChiNext Index and the CSI 2000 Index had particularly prominent increases. The technology growth and cycle sectors continued to attract funds, and the large - consumption industry chain maintained a stable performance [31] - Industry Performance: As of a certain date in a certain month, among the Shenwan primary industries, most industries rose, with the steel industry leading with an 18.3% increase, followed by building materials and pharmaceutical biology. There were also several industries with an increase of more than 5%, showing the diversity of market hotspots [32] - Market Style: In a certain month, A - share market styles, scales, and performance sectors showed differential increases. In terms of style, except for the consumption style index, other styles rose, with the financial style index leading with an 8.92% increase. In terms of scale, large, medium, and small - cap indexes all rose, with the mid - cap index standing out. In terms of performance, loss - making stocks, micro - profit stocks, and high - performance stocks all rose, indicating an increase in market risk appetite [35] - Liquidity: From a certain period in a certain month, the average daily trading volume of the A - share market reached a certain amount, a certain percentage increase compared to the previous month. The newly established equity - biased fund shares decreased compared to the previous month but still remained at a high level, indicating strong support from incremental funds [42] - Market Sentiment: As of a certain date in a certain month, the average monthly turnover rate of major indexes continued to rise. The turnover rate of the STAR 50 Index increased by more than a certain percentage month - on - month, and the ChiNext Index increased by nearly a certain percentage. At the end of the month, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year, and the margin trading buying amount also increased significantly [45][49] 3.3 Private - Fund Strategies - Basis Analysis: In a certain month, the basis of small - and medium - cap indexes showed significant phased characteristics. In the first half of the month, the basis fluctuated within a narrow range, and in the second half, as the market style switched to large - cap blue - chips, the basis widened rapidly. Near the end of the month, the basis narrowed slightly [53] - Performance Review of Private - Fund Sub - Strategies: In a certain month, among private - fund strategies, the macro strategy and the stock long - only strategy had single - month returns of a certain percentage and a certain percentage respectively. From the beginning of the year to the end of a certain month, the stock market neutral strategy led with a certain percentage of cumulative return, followed by the macro strategy [56] - Index - Enhancement Strategy: In a certain month, the excess returns of the CSI 300 index - enhancement, CSI 500 index - enhancement, and CSI 1000 index - enhancement showed a relatively differentiated structure. From the beginning of the year to June, the cumulative excess returns of the three reached a certain percentage, a certain percentage, and a certain percentage respectively, with the small - and medium - cap index - enhancement strategies leading [59] - Neutral Strategy: In the first half of the year, the market turnover rate and trading volume first increased and then decreased, remaining at a high level. Volatility increased briefly in a certain month due to tariff events but decreased compared to the second half of last year. The average annualized basis of IC and IM put pressure on the neutral strategy, but the strong performance of small - cap stocks still drove the strategy to achieve outstanding results [63] 3.4后市展望 - In a certain month, the A - share market is expected to maintain a dynamic balance between value and growth. High - dividend assets such as coal and banks still have defensive advantages, while the technology growth sector is waiting for two key catalysts: the Fed's interest - rate cut and the continuous easing of Sino - US tariffs. If these two variables are realized in the second half of the month, the market style may turn to growth; otherwise, the dumbbell strategy will continue [66]