纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash and glass futures are both in an oscillating phase. For soda ash, although there was policy support last week, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. For glass, the price increase was mainly driven by policy sentiment, with insufficient supply - demand support [6][30]. - It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures [6][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: Soda ash futures are in an oscillating phase. The short - term may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation, start - up adjustment, and inventory changes [6]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the domestic soda ash market first rose and then declined. Policy and device maintenance supported the price increase at the beginning of the week, but weak downstream demand and increased supply later led to a weakening of the futures [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. The futures were in high - level oscillation, affected by the contradiction between policy expectations and fundamentals. The expected operating range of SA2509 was 1250 - 1450, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The domestic soda ash market was still stable with a slight upward trend. The expected operating range of SA2509 is 1200 - 1350, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.3. Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差 (daily), ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly), etc. The multi - empty flow is - 39.7, indicating the main force is slightly bearish; the capital energy is 7.2 + 2, remaining basically stable; the multi - empty divergence is 90.6, with a high risk of market reversal [11][15][22]. Glass Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: Glass is in an oscillating trend. The short - term may have narrow - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy trends [30]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the domestic 5mm float glass market was oscillating with a slight upward trend. The price increase was mainly driven by policy sentiment, with insufficient supply - demand support and low downstream acceptance of high prices [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [30]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend last week. The futures first fell and then rose, with a risk of adjustment at the weekend. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 1200 - 1400, and it was advisable to wait and see [33]. - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The domestic 5mm float glass market was oscillating with a slight upward trend, but the upward momentum weakened. The expected operating range of glass 2509 is 950 - 1150, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [34]. 3.3. Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and profit margin of the float process using natural gas as fuel,基差 (daily), and期末库存. The multi - empty flow is - 53.5, indicating the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is 68.7 * + +, with a large inflow of funds; the multi - empty divergence is 96.4, with a high risk of market reversal [36][42][51].