纸浆月报：市场缺乏单边驱动，浆价宽幅震荡运行-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the pulp supply side is abundant while the improvement on the demand side is limited. With the policy and fundamentals presenting a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors, there is a lack of a single - sided driving force. It is expected that the main futures contract will operate in a wide - range oscillation [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price Review: In July, the spot market price of pulp showed a pattern of weak softwood pulp and strong hardwood pulp. The prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood in Shandong decreased, while the prices of hardwood pulp like Goldfish, Bird, and Alpine increased. The prices of chemimechanical pulp, natural pulp, sugarcane pulp, and bamboo pulp were stable, and the price of reed pulp in Northeast China decreased [11][12]. - Pulp Futures Market Technical Chart Analysis: Since its listing in November 2018, the weighted monthly K - line chart of pulp futures has generally shown a converging triangle consolidation pattern. It is expected that the pulp price will continue to oscillate above the lower track of the converging triangle in August [15]. - Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison: In July, the main pulp futures contract increased, and the overall increase in the spot price of wood pulp was less than that of the futures, so the basis discount margin decreased [19]. - Log Futures Market Review: In July, the log futures contract 2509 showed a continued oscillating rebound. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased slightly [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - Pulp Supply - Demand Balance Forecast: It is estimated that the pulp production in August will be 2.126 million tons, a 0.1% month - on - month increase, and the total supply will be 7.326 million tons, a 0.5% month - on - month increase [23]. - Monthly Pulp Production: In July 2025, the domestic pulp production increased slightly. The capacity utilization rate of hardwood pulp increased, while that of chemimechanical pulp decreased [25][30]. - Pulp Import Volume: In June 2025, the pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased month - on - month, while that of hardwood pulp increased. The import volume of natural pulp decreased month - on - month, and that of chemimechanical pulp increased [31][34][37]. - Pulp Import Average Price: In June 2025, the average import price of pulp continued to decline slightly month - on - month. The average import price of hardwood pulp was basically flat month - on - month, and that of natural pulp increased slightly [39][44]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption: In July 2025, the actual consumption of domestic pulp increased [45]. - Wood Pulp Usage: In July 2025, the wood pulp usage in household paper and white cardboard increased month - on - month, while the wood pulp usage in offset paper and coated paper increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [49][52]. - Downstream Paper Production: In July 2025, the monthly production of downstream household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard all increased month - on - month [56][57][59][63]. - Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis: In July, the spot prices of household paper and cultural paper continued to decline month - on - month, the prices of whiteboard paper and white cardboard decreased slightly month - on - month, the price of boxboard paper remained stable, and the price of corrugated paper decreased slightly [66][67][69]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory: In July, the overall port inventory showed a de - stocking trend, but the inventory in Qingdao Port increased. The inventories in Changshu Port and Gaolan Port decreased [71][75]. - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts: In July, the pulp futures warehouse receipts increased [76].