Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction this week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before August 12 [1] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, and the idea of buying on dips is recommended [2] - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand relationship, and policy, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. The Brent 10 contract rose 2.84%, and the SC09 contract rose 2.92%. OPEC +'s production increase in September can only partially hedge risks and demand. The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction [1] - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: FU and LU cracks continued to decline. The fundamentals of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the crack spreads are also weak [21] - Asphalt: In August, the domestic production volume decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and inventory destocking was weak. The price follows the crude oil direction with limited fluctuation [22] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, and the domestic market was under pressure. The price was running at a low level [23] Metals - Precious Metals: After the US non - farm payrolls data was far below expectations, the dollar fell, and precious metals rebounded. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended in the fluctuating trend [2] - Base Metals - Copper: LME copper fluctuated and closed down. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions [3] - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly at night. The macro - sentiment was repeated, and the inventory increased. It may continue to be under pressure and fluctuate [4] - Zinc: The 08 contract entered the delivery month. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was recommended to be shorted on rebounds [7] - Lead: The price continued to decline. There was support at the bottom. It is recommended to hold long positions [8] - Nickel: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The upstream price support weakened, and the inventory was at a high level. Look for opportunities to short [9] - Tin: LME tin rose. Pay attention to the domestic supply - demand game. Hold high - level short positions [10] - Manganese Silicon: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand was relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to the support at 5800 [18] - Silicon Iron: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply increased slightly, and it followed the trend of manganese silicon [19] Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: It opened lower and fluctuated. The futures price was at a reasonable level. Try to go long with a light position in the short - term [11] - Polysilicon: The price fluctuated sharply and corrected. The PS2509 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 46000 - 47000 yuan/ton [12] - Industrial Silicon: The futures price fluctuated downward. The supply pressure remained, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [13] - Urea: The agricultural demand entered the off - season. The short - term market was expected to fluctuate weakly [24] - Methanol: The port inventory increased seasonally, and the domestic supply was sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of macro - policies [25] - Pure Benzene: The futures price weakened. There was an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third quarter, and monthly spread band - trading is recommended [26] - Styrene: The supply pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to run weakly [27] - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: The supply of propylene was expected to be relatively abundant, and the price was easy to fall but hard to rise. Polyolefin futures continued to consolidate [28] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC continued to weaken, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda ran weakly [29] - PX & PTA: The PX and PTA prices fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and there was a driving force for processing margin repair in the medium - term [30] - Ethylene Glycol: The price continued to decline, and the supply was expected to increase [31] - Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip: The prices followed the raw materials down. There was an expectation of improved demand for short - fiber in the peak season [32] Building Materials - Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil: The steel price fell. The demand was weak, and the "anti - involution" cooled down. The short - term price was under pressure [14] - Iron Ore: The price fell last week. The supply and demand changed little, and it was expected to fluctuate [15] - Coke & Coking Coal: The prices declined. The supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the prices were affected by policy expectations [16][17] Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The "anti - involution" commodities continued to correct. The US soybean was under pressure, and the market was expected to fluctuate [36] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: There was a risk of increased adjustment in the short - term. A long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the medium - term [37] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The Canadian rapeseed futures price is expected to consolidate. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term [38] - Soybean No.1: The price fluctuated and corrected. Pay attention to the weather in the US and Northeast China [39] - Corn: The corn futures price continued to fluctuate weakly. The US corn was under pressure, and the domestic market focused on the supply in the circulation link [40] - Live Pig: The futures price continued to correct. It is recommended for the industry to hedge at high prices [41] - Egg: The spot price fell. The 26 - year - later futures contracts are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 25 [42] - Cotton: Both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton fell. The downstream demand was weak, and a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy is recommended [43] - Sugar: US sugar fluctuated. The domestic sugar production had uncertainties. The price was expected to fluctuate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [44] - Apple: The futures price fluctuated. Pay attention to the price of early - maturing apples and the new - season output estimate [45] - Timber: The futures price fluctuated. The supply - demand situation improved, and a long - biased strategy is recommended [46] - Paper Pulp: The futures price fell. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand was weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - Container Freight Index (European Line): The SCFI European route index is expected to decline significantly this week. It is recommended to hold short positions [20] - Stock Index: A - shares fluctuated lower. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [48] - Treasury Bond: Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The yield curve is expected to steepen in the short - term [49]
综合晨报-20250804
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-04 05:33