集运指数欧线周报（EC）：运价见顶信号显现，盘面整体偏弱-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", and the trading strategy involves a unilateral "oscillating" approach with a 12 - 4 positive spread arbitrage position held [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rate of the container shipping index shows signs of peaking, and the overall market is weak. Spot prices have peaked, with quotes in early August starting to decline, which will lead to a synchronous decline in late August. The main focus of the 10 - contract lies in the decline slope of the freight rate from August to October [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Spot Freight Rates: Spot prices have peaked, with quotes in early August starting to weaken, pulling down those in late August. For example, GEMINI's Maersk wk33 opening price rose from 2800 to 2900, while HPL dropped to 3150 in early August. OA's early - August average quote was 3300, and PA continued to cut prices to 3100 with a downward trend [3] - Political and Economic Factors: These factors are considered neutral. There are various political events such as the potential extension of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US, new US tariffs on copper products, and changes in the US - Gaza policy [3] - Capacity Supply: It is neutral. Weekly average capacity deployment is 290,000 in July, 300,000 in August, and 320,000 in September. New ships were delivered in early July, and some shipping companies adjusted their routes, redirecting capacity to the European line. European port congestion persists due to labor shortages, strikes, low river water levels, and increased Red Sea route risks. MSK added an extra 15,780 - TEU vessel in wk32 and plans to send another about 13,000 - TEU vessel in wk34. Six blank sailings have been announced in August by the Ocean Alliance [3] - Demand: It is neutral. Demand and loading rates were good at the end of July, but the high capacity deployment at the beginning of August weakened the effect of the inventory - building rolling pool [3] - Market: Spot prices show signs of peaking. It is expected that spot prices will peak at the end of July and beginning of August, decline slowly until late August, and then the decline slope will intensify. The 10 - contract's main focus is on the decline slope of the freight rate from August to October [3] - Investment View and Trading Strategy: The investment view is "oscillating". The trading strategy includes a unilateral "oscillating" approach and holding a 12 - 4 positive spread arbitrage position. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price drops during the off - season [5] 3.3 Static Capacity - Order Volume: Data on container ship order volumes are presented in multiple graphs, showing order volumes by different container ship loading capacities over different time periods [12] - Delivery Volume: Graphs display delivery volumes of container ships by different loading capacities from 2000 to 2025 [15] - Demolition Volume: Information on the demolition volumes of container ships by different loading capacities is provided, covering the period from 2022 to 2025 [17] - Future Delivery: Future delivery volumes of container ships are shown, including breakdowns by loading capacity and quarterly and seasonal data from 2023 to 2029 [21] - Ship - Breaking and New - Building Prices: There are graphs showing ship - breaking prices by different loading capacities, new - building price indices, and new - building prices by different loading capacities from 2015 to 2025 [28][30] - Second - Hand Ship Prices: Second - hand ship price indices and prices of second - hand ships with different loading capacities and ages are presented from 2015 to 2025 [34][39] - Existing Container Ship Capacity: Information on the existing capacity of container ships, including total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, proportion of idle/laid - up/retrofitted ships, average age, and average age of scrapped ships, is provided from 2015 to 2025 [42][50] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - Ship Schedule: Data on the total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, as well as the capacity deployments of PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN from week 13 to week 28, are presented [56][64] - Desulfurization Tower Installation: Graphs show the capacity and number of container ships with installed and under - installation desulfurization towers, as well as the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation and the average speed of container ships from 2018 to 2025 [