原油周报：产油国再度增产，原油弱势下行-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The improvement of the macro - sentiment due to the US reaching tariff agreements with major economies and the rise in geopolitical risk premiums are the main drivers for the rebound of domestic and international oil prices this week. However, with OPEC+ oil - producing countries continuing to accelerate production increases in September, the supply is under negative pressure, and the supply - demand structure of crude oil has weakened. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [5][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Price Soars and Basis Discount Narrows Significantly - As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was reported at $71.26 per barrel, equivalent to RMB 509.5 per barrel, with a significant weekly increase of RMB 26.3 per barrel. The main contract 2509 of domestic crude oil futures closed at RMB 527.9 per barrel, rising significantly by RMB 15.0 per barrel week - on - week. The discount narrowed significantly, and the basis between the two was RMB 18.4 per barrel [9]. 3.1.2 Oil - Producing Countries Increase Production Again, and Crude Oil Declines Weakly - The US reaching tariff agreements with other countries improves the macro - factor, boosting the risk appetite of the global commodity market. The US increasing sanctions on Russian crude oil may lead to a decline in supply. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries maintain the production increase plan for September, the actual supply growth may be less than expected. Due to OPEC+ continuing to accelerate production increases in September, under the suppression of supply negative factors, last Friday, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a weak downward trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed down 2.95% to RMB 513.0 per barrel [5][15]. 3.2 Escalation of Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus and Faster Production Increase Rhythm 3.2.1 OPEC+ Accelerates Capacity Release, and the Expectation of Supply Surplus Increases - After a significant and unexpected production increase in May, OPEC+ oil - producing countries accelerated production increases for the second consecutive month, exceeding market expectations. In May and June, they each increased production by 411,000 barrels per day. In the past three months, OPEC+ has cumulatively increased production by 2.2 million barrels per day, completing nearly half of the 18 - month production cutback task. Saudi Arabia, Russia and other countries have reiterated their commitment to market stability and increased production. This decision may suppress oil prices in the short term but may intensify quota disputes among members and raise concerns about supply surplus in the long term. In June 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 27.235 million barrels per day, with a slight month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day [22][23][24]. 3.2.2 Non - OPEC Oil - Producing Countries' Capacity Remains at a High Level - As the leader of non - OPEC oil - producing countries, the US has maintained a high level of crude oil production since 2024. As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 415, a slight weekly decrease of 7 and a decrease of 67 compared to the same period last year. The US daily crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels, a slight weekly increase of 41,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 14,000 barrels per day. The EIA predicts that the growth rate of US domestic crude oil production in 2025 will slow down further, with an expected increase of 160,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day this year and flat production in 2026 [37][38]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil Demand in the Northern Hemisphere is in the Seasonal Peak - The US, as the largest crude oil consumer, has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. July - August is the peak season for gasoline consumption. However, after the US announced a comprehensive tariff policy, many financial institutions have adjusted their crude oil demand growth forecasts downward. Energy institutions such as EIA, IEA, and OPEC have also lowered their global crude oil demand growth expectations for 2025. It is expected that the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2025 will further decline [41][42]. 3.2.4 US Crude Oil Inventories Decrease Significantly, and Refinery Utilization Rate Increases Slightly - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.7 million barrels, a significant weekly increase of 7.698 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.358 million barrels compared to the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.553 million barrels, with a slight weekly increase of 690,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 402.7 million barrels, with a slight weekly increase of 238,000 barrels. The US refinery utilization rate was maintained at 95.4%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.1 percentage points, a slight monthly increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 5.3 percentage points [44]. 3.2.5 China's Crude Oil Imports Increase Slightly in June 2025 - In June 2025, China's crude oil production maintained a stable growth trend, with the output of industrial enterprises above the designated size reaching 18.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The crude oil processing volume turned from a decline to an increase, reaching 62.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In June, China's crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase of 7.38%. Looking forward to 2025, China's crude oil processing and import consumption may be restricted by weak demand [48]. 3.3 Iran - Israel Ceasefire, and Crude Oil Premium Drops Significantly - Since the Iran - Israel conflict, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. After the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, the crude oil premium has rapidly shrunk. The conflict has exposed Iran's weaknesses in internal security, air defense systems, and the influence of the main - peace faction [59]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Decrease Significantly Week - on - Week - Since July 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak and volatile trend, and the market's bullish power has shrunk. As of July 22, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 153,331 contracts, a significant weekly decrease of 9,096 contracts and a significant decrease of 52,648 contracts compared to the June average, a decline of 25.56%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 227,245 contracts, a significant weekly decrease of 11,576 contracts, and a significant increase of 40,622 contracts compared to the June average, an increase of 21.83% [61].